Good summary by LWX for the storm possibility later this week.
Model guidance begins to diverge a bit by Friday, but there has been
a bit more of a consensus in the 12z cycle, at least in the
deterministic runs. The ICON still hangs onto the solution that cuts
off a low over TX and tracks northward into the Mid-Atlantic.
However, the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian all have a similar situation
where a strong upper trough digs into the central CONUS and moves
across the area Friday into Saturday before becoming negatively
tilted and lifting up the east coast. At the surface, all three have
strong lows nearby, with the GFS being the most bullish by far.
There remains a wide variety of solutions within the ensemble
guidance however, so that is something to take into account as we
monitor the trends in the coming days. At the very least, this is
something we need to keep a close eye on. For the time being, it
appears this would be more of a heavy rain and/or severe weather
threat depending on the track of any potential surface low.
Should these solutions verify, we would looking at a decent shot of
cold advection on Saturday, along with upslope snow showers along
the Allegheny Front and strong wind gusts in the wake of the system.
Temperatures will be highly dependent on what pattern ultimately
unfolds, with ensemble guidance currently advertising a wide range
of possible solutions.