nj2va

I’m flying out on the 12th for a work trip and returning on the 15th. It’ll certainly snow here that week.

GFS OP shows how we can score mid month (caveat: it’ll change wildly, rely on the ensembles, etc). Should at least be more exciting than last December where we didn’t stand a chance (even in the mountains).

ALEET ALEET

Make that 793 for Ovi and 403 goals on the road (#1 all time now).

Ovi scores goal 792. Closing in on 2nd place all time.

I'm sure its been posted here somewhere, but I'd love to see stats on -AO in early winter and their staying power throughout the season. I thought I read somewhere that typically -AO/-NAO early in winter have staying power/consistency vs a one and done type pattern.

USA!!

Ugh, just got a meeting added to my calendar from 2-230. FFS.

https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/bz-mrg.pdf (Page 14) and http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/07-Jan-96-500MillibarMaps.html for the 500/etc maps Jan 96 had sprawling HPs to the north, trough in the east, multiple LPs that formed/diminished/reformed over the Gulf/SE until the ‘main’ LP formed near Cape Hatteras which eventually became ‘the’ LP. The 500 maps show a classic closed bowling ball and the trough is eventually negatively tilted and captures the rapidly deepening LP off the Mid Atl coast. This was the mean geopotential height anomaly for the first five days of January that year, leading up to the storm (hopefully I did this right).

Trailer for 1923 is out: https://www.indiewire.com/2022/11/1923-trailer-harrison-ford-helen-mirren-yellowstone-prequel-1234781998/ I loved 1883 and I’m currently on Season 1 of Yellowstone - such a great show.

Our problems with UHI / non sticking events (when we’re early/late in the season) IMO are the marginal temps (32-33) and light precip. Last year’s January storm happened the day after it was 65 (I was in shorts outside on Sunday) but we had hot and heavy rates for several hours Monday morning which dropped 11” here, and had no problem sticking to the streets, etc.

Something something something anomalous blocking something something something its going to happen like that something snow something

I'm cautiously optimistic we win - going 3-1 USA. If you told me we had to beat Iran and would advance (and have a small chance at winning the group outright), I'd take those odds.

I'll roll the dice anytime with a -AO/-NAO (and west based) look like that. And I like seeing that in mid December vs early December...those 2ish weeks (and more) helps the coastal plain tremendously.

T minus 24 hours until U-S-A!!!!

Sunrise alert. Gorgeous pink and red sky.

Bundle up weenies

We’re about to enter stage 3 of the Mid Atl LR thread emotional cycle - “impatience leads to calls for winter to be over” Realistically there are no threats to track over the next 10ish days so people will get bored and start to psychoanalyze the pattern change - if OP runs don’t show big winter threats in fantasy land or ensembles show the pattern delayed by 12 hours, all hope will be lost by some here. Let’s get to tracking the 75 degrees on 12/6

I am officially rooting for you to lose

40 with light rain. Snowpack is getting beat up.

This was encouraging news from practice yesterday: https://novacapsfans.com/2022/11/23/t-j-oshie-set-to-return-dmitry-orlov-participates-in-morning-skate-nicklas-backstrom-participates-in-non-contact-jersey-notes-from-wednesdays-morning-skate/amp/

If it makes you feel better I’m at 38 degrees up in the mountains. . DP of 21 so very dry air. Very pretty sunrise…happy thanksgiving weather fam!

Great to have Oshie back. 2 assists and was a presence on the PP. and always good to beat Philly.

“CONCERN”

We have a legit shot at beating England Friday. This tourney has had many surprises.