nj2va

As someone who suffers from nose bleeds especially with dry air, recommend getting the Ayr nasal gel. Works wonders to prevent dryness.

Looks like PNA ~neutral on d10. evolves into this.

IDGAF this is an OP post D10. Still fun to see. CCB crushing NOVA/C MD.

Still differences in the PNA domain between EPS and GEFS. This isn't based on anything shown on today's models, but I still think it's going to take until closer to the end of the month for the Pacific to improve given the Nina base state.

I also feel like these pattern changes take time to take shape so even if there was a potential threat window early in the blocking pattern change, more often than not, those shift right. Snow in the first part of December is really hard to make happen for most in the forum (especially in a Nina). So even if the more favorable pacific is delayed until later in December (and hopefully links up with a favorable Atlantic), it’d be much better climo for the 95 areas. Level headed thinking and snow don’t go hand in hand in the mid Atlantic though…

I had four different people at work this week mention Jay’s wintry mix page to me and how they’re excited for snow this month.

Or was it Ji’s wintry mix followers storming the castle?

The PNA domain is centered over the west coast. A +PNA would feature a ridge over the west, which helps to dump cold air into the east from Canada and also helps form troughs in the east. This does have a -EPO, however (AK domain) with a ridge poking into Alaska.

T-14 hours until USA / Dutch - USA USA USA!

I don’t mind a delay by 1-2 weeks…gets us closer to prime climo. That, and I’m at Deep Creek week between Christmas and New Years.

I’d rather dissect that for an hour than look at more northern hemisphere 500mb anomaly maps for H360.

Yep, or the H5 energy passes south of us in south/central VA would help too. We’ll have lots of solutions show up over the next week. Night/day from last December where it was clear we stood no chance in the mid-Atlantic.

Welcome!!

I just finished watching the recording of the game…FFS.

Great period by the Caps.

Worry posts spread like wildfire in the LR thread - if the 12-17th window gets pushed back to the end of December, it’ll quite literally be a dumpster fire of moaning and groaning. We’ve seen delayed = denied but I have a hard time believing we come out of the upcoming advertised without seeing any snow (unless the thing just goes poof in the next 5 days which seems unlikely). We also have to remember total annual snowfall in DC is like 15-20” depending on where you are in the immediate metro area…coming out of this pattern with a 4-8” moderate event is climo.

Hopefully a good sign for the rest of the winter based on historical analogs: In the replies, he also added: "of the years were La Nina going by the monthly 3.4 value. 1995, 2010, 1962, 1970. All 4 had a -NAO January, 2 of the 4 had negative Jan and Feb"

Apparently a GFS upgrade went live the other day (16.3). I don’t understand most of this but it looks like they are saying it’ll fix snowfall amounts in marginal setups (among other upgrades). https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf2/scn22-104_gfs.v16.3.0.pdf

18z GFS is an upslope dream for the mountains as those vorticities rotate through.

Jeebus, a 562 anomaly west-based -NAO.

Gorgeous pink colors playing off the whispy clouds at sunset.

Whens the radio show?

I was about to post the same thing. Did you get a sneak peak of that this morning?

We need @mitchnick back

Weenie question but is that indicated by those squiggly 500 bars over Mexico?