nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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Threat of winter event for the area with precip arriving in parts of the subforum within 78 hours. Potential exists for an impactful event, especially in the western zones.
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That’s a pretty good shift on the GFS to more frozen across the area.
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We probably need a thread for Thursday since it’s in the MR and this can stay focused on the upcoming pattern and potential for threats around Christmas.
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GFS brings in precip in the overnight hours Wednesday into Thursday between 1a-4a. DPs in the teens across the area / temps in the upper 20s to low 30s, with a mixed bag of precip including freezing rain, sleet, and snow. this run is definitely more favorable to frozen precip in the area.
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Fantastic post. Also easy for dummies like me to comprehend.
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GFS and Euro both creeping up the start times too…now overnight Wednesday into Thursday.
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What a 2nd period by the Caps. That penalty shot by MJo was pretty.
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I remember doing an epic walk in the middle of the night while snow was puking. That WAA was fun.
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Regarding Thursday’s storm, one thing to keep an eye on regarding potential for icing are the dews. 18z Euro is showing DPs at 12 out in the mountains and teens/low 20s for the 81 corridor/N MD. This would lead to evaporational cooling as precip breaks out overnight Wednesday into Thursday.
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Not a bad signal for 12 days out. Also, the 500 NHEM loop on the 18z is .
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Nice weather for our neighborhood’s tree lighting, caroling, Santa visit for the kids earlier today. It was nice that it wasn’t 65 degrees either.
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GFS setting up again at the end of its run. What a weenie run.
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Sun angle starts increasing next week.
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That snow would have staying power with the advertised cold that will shift east at the end of December as @frd posted.
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The HP was actually strengthening as it was dropping south, too. Christmas-eve-eve snow breaking out in DC Friday morning. Moderate to heavy snow Friday afternoon. Yes, I’m doing PBP on a 280H+ run of the GFS OP. ETA: NS vort dropping down from the plains creates a low in the Great Lakes. GFS eventually has a low in the gulf, low off the Jersey coast, and a low in the Great Lakes. A window to certainly keep an eye on.
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GFS setting something up for the 23. 50/50 low, 1043 HP over Canada, system developing in the south.
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18z GFS better upslope setup for the mountains after the initial ice storm.
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Ice storm on the Euro for the mountains and west of 81. Primary hanging around in northern WI is interfering with what would be a good upslope setup. Should still support snow showers over the weekend.
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I wish CBS was showing the Bills/Jets game here instead of the Ravens.
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Yep, its rare that we score flush hits on every opportunity - usually if there are 4 chances in a good pattern, we’ll eventually score on the 3rd or 4th especially once the pattern has established and the cold is in place. The good news is we’ll have cold in place.
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It caught up to the Euro IRT timing. Now showing precip breaking out ~12z Thursday. GFS has been all over the place with this event - not saying this depiction won’t happen, but i have to put less confidence in the GFS overall.
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I haven’t looked into the individuals members yet but MSLP redevelops over NC as coastal takes over. Should be some hits in the mix based on this.
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Wonky depiction - something tells me it doesn’t happen as shown.
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Tis the season for NAM extrapolation - NAM at the end of the run certainly doesn’t look like it’s about to go the way of yesterday’s GFS runs that basically took a buzz saw to the vort. Looks similar to the globals at 84.
