nj2va

I’ll take that EPS look any day.

Definite storm signal on the global 00z suite. That’s the takeaway from tonight.

I’ll roll the dice with this look.

29.7/19 at McHenry. LWX’s update tells me it’s unlikely I’m driving to Deep Creek Friday morning 62 and sunny here in San Diego.

Yeah, OPs at range are lol. People shouldn’t put faith in any exact depiction on the OPs that far out whether good or bad. Stick to the ensembles.

The euro is not the king it once was.

I’m on the west coast for work so just catching up on the game. Awesome stuff! Ovi Ovi Ovi!

18z Euro by precip type.

Yep, 3k showing mid to upper teens in the watch areas. Even in non watch areas teens and 20s. I always think you should half/third the ice maps given latent heat release, etc to get an idea for actual accretion. But even doing that is a highly impactful event in the mountains and impactful for 81.

I’m convinced most of the doom and gloom posters on d10 OPs actually want storms to fail so they can say “see I told you. It’ll never snow here” relentlessly.

I think LWX will upgrade Garrett to an ice storm warning with their afternoon update. Even if low end of their forecast verifies, still a high impact event coupled with the wind.

Hopefully no trees come down on our house. Things look dicey in the mountain areas with the ice and winds.

Enjoy the high. Get ready for the low. Just read todays mood swings here as a preview.

LWX mentioned in todays disco that the warm layer is shallower than previously modeled adding to the uncertainty in the forecast and potential for more frozen.

Was just looking through the 18z Euro and agree that its better for the far western zones in that it flips back to sleet/snow from freezing rain during the event. The 6” line is close to the M/D border in western MD.

Yes, CAD doesn't hold on as long on the ridges/mountains vs valley areas - places like Cumberland west to Frostburg are better spots for icing. Similarly, I've seen plenty of setups where Garrett holds onto all snow longer than higher elevations in WV (Canaan) that flip earlier to sleet once the mid levels warm. In our 6 years of having our house out there, I've been there for a few 0.25"+ ice accretions but wasn't high impact in terms of power disruptions, etc. The one that does come to mind was maybe 2 (or 3) years ago where Deep Creek got over 0.5" of ice accretion and had power outages and we lost two trees on our property. I'm terrible at remembering dates/exacts of events and we weren't there for it, but that was one of the more memorable ones that I can recall. ^^That's a good first call for ice out there IMO

That’s an OP, we should expect there to be errors in the 7 day+ timeframe.

Yeah, increasingly becoming likely Cumberland west to deep creek see ice warning criteria met. Dews are in the teens out there at onset with temps during the storm in the mid to upper 20s. Only positive is precious looks to be moderate to heavy at times which should limit the accretion. But still a potentially high impact event out there followed by upslope snow showers Friday night/Saturday.

I’m taxiing waiting to take off at Reagan. I think I see LWX’s temp sensor behind our jet engine.

Another gorgeous December sunrise.

There’s still a storm signal in the east for that time frame. OPs will continue to fluctuate this far out. Can’t ask for more with that kind of cold nearby.

All about expectations. It’s been an uphill battle for the coastal plain but there’s a shot at seeing some frozen at the start of it. N&W in the game for a mixed bag.

Incoming on the GFS for the 23rd again.

Re-posting here. 00Z GFS made a decent shift to a colder solution for the area.

Started a thread for the Thursday/Friday deal since we’re ~78H from precip onset for parts of the forum.