Yep, lots can still change either way. I’m just perplexed by having west based blocking and it’s barreling through - and it’s not some kind of transient, east based block. Let’s see what 18z Euro shows!
It's clear through H72 which is what I'm up to, the GFS is not making a move towards the Euro with its handling of the NS vort. Of course it doesn't necessarily mean a blizzard by H170, but thats the key feature early on and it's holding steady.
Euro and GFS couldn't be more different with how they are handling that NS wave and its within 84 hours. Someone will be way off in the short range with a key feature.
Spot on. I can remember a time when the UK would "preview" what the Euro generally did, or at least that was the speculation here years ago. It's definitely gone away from that (and of course each setup is different). You forgot to assess the JMA...
I feel like the UK used to be a better model but the last few years has been a trainwreck for events I can remember. And don't get me started on the ICON. Two models IDGAF what they show.
First legit threat to track for the entire sub forum which is always fun. I’m not even hunting a KU, just a nice Christmas appetizer of a few inches would be great. That upper level look says aspire more weenie, though.
I’m in DFW waiting for my connecting flight home. We are driving out there tonight when I land. Should get a few inches of upslope too. Pattern looks amazing for the lake to freeze over too.