nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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18z Euro is basically unchanged at 500 through H57. eta: through 75, NS SS is slightly stronger.
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Yep, lots can still change either way. I’m just perplexed by having west based blocking and it’s barreling through - and it’s not some kind of transient, east based block. Let’s see what 18z Euro shows!
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I mean, what's the point of having that west-based -NAO?
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-AOs are great!
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It'll be the storm, after the storm, after the next storm, after the next epic pattern sets up, don't worry!
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Weenie run for the mountains, with the upslope cranking behind it too.
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It's clear through H72 which is what I'm up to, the GFS is not making a move towards the Euro with its handling of the NS vort. Of course it doesn't necessarily mean a blizzard by H170, but thats the key feature early on and it's holding steady.
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NAM doesn't look like Euro at 500 at H84 thats for sure.
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Don't read Snowgoose's analysis then
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Need Heisty's thoughts quickly.
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Euro and GFS couldn't be more different with how they are handling that NS wave and its within 84 hours. Someone will be way off in the short range with a key feature.
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Spot on. I can remember a time when the UK would "preview" what the Euro generally did, or at least that was the speculation here years ago. It's definitely gone away from that (and of course each setup is different). You forgot to assess the JMA...
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I feel like the UK used to be a better model but the last few years has been a trainwreck for events I can remember. And don't get me started on the ICON. Two models IDGAF what they show.
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Weenie rule #301 - deform always crushes N&W of the city. GFS shows this below so it's clearly the correct solution.
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Yellow'd
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Im in
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While you’re at it, start a storm thread for next Thursday too.
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We be snowin’. Wouldn’t shock me if many hit climo by month end.
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First legit threat to track for the entire sub forum which is always fun. I’m not even hunting a KU, just a nice Christmas appetizer of a few inches would be great. That upper level look says aspire more weenie, though.
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Like seeing that banana high look too.
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Meh. 50/50? Pass on that look…
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Just got to deep creek. Solid glacier on the ground and currently 31 with light FRZA/snow mix. Love seeing that upslope.
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I’m in DFW waiting for my connecting flight home. We are driving out there tonight when I land. Should get a few inches of upslope too. Pattern looks amazing for the lake to freeze over too.
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I’m waiting for PSU to come in and worry about being fringed / something slightly off in the setup / reasons why the storm won’t happen.
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Looks like snow is mixing in on the wisp cams. That’s good news to keep down ice totals.
