nj2va

Good day to bake Christmas cookies. 26 degrees and it’s been SN- all day.

I was just thinking this. Give me an imperfect pattern and we’ll figure something out. These pretty 500 maps haven’t delivered lately.

Pretty sick upslope for the mountains and ideal snow making conditions after the cutter - in time for the Christmas week crowds at the local ski resorts.

Not to interrupt the model whining but… I’m at the local Walmart in Oakland. There’s about 20-25 local law enforcement here, each paired with a local child - I asked one of them what the program is and they’re each given a gift card to buy gifts on their lists or for family members. Then they go to the local fairgrounds for a day with Santa and games - and are sent home with a holiday dinner for their families. Super cool stuff. It’s a reminder of what this season is about and to give back to those in need. And yes, I teared up seeing this at the store.

Sure if you’re hunting for a KU that’s not a good setup. But hard to say it’s a nothing burger for the east at this time….we could score frozen out of this setup even in the 95 corridor. . And mountains / far western areas could be in for more depending on track, etc.

There’s more than a handful of EPS members that have coastal lows in positions similar to the GEFS, but mean certainly favors the cutter track. With this spread, hard for anyone here to declare what will happen 5-6 days from now.

It’s a good thing I’m neither of those….

The Great Lakes / lake effect snow belt are having a crazy winter so far. Depending on what the storm next week does, there’s a good chance of LE machine cranking with those arctic winds.

Guessing its ruin? I’ve got him on ignore for that reason.

The vort over AK is sharper on this run at 81H…not sure what it means down the road but thats a step towards GFS.

Yeah, don’t see major changes through 63 vs 18z so far.

I was telling myself the same thing. I’d be happy to see a slight shift to the GFS idea though.

Looking at the member LPs, there’s some bombs in there. A few sub 980s at our latitude, hello.

That’s a pretty sweet GEFS run. I like the lack of a trend west.

Was just about to post that. I like this GEFS run so far.

Can’t wait to watch the Bills game tomorrow night in these conditions: Snow before 3am, then snow showers likely, mainly between 3am and 5am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 26. West wind 11 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

GFS with a warning event. ICON moved towards the GFS. CMC sticking to its guns. Solid 00z suite so far.

This is looking pretty awesome.

I like seeing the PV stronger at through 84H. Would like to see that continue in the run.

Shortwave in AK is more amplified. Not smart enough to say what it means downstream though.

The ICON is a shitty model but at least it’s a model that took a big step away from the other camp. Never a good sign when its one model vs everything else so even though its the ICON, still good.

@brooklynwx99 mentioned the shortwave over Alaska. well, ICON trended stronger with this, which according to him is what we’d want to see. I broke my rule and posted about icon but I’ll take any good trend.

29 and SN. Big fatty dendrites falling.

00z NAM sticks with the GFS’ depiction of the NS SS according to my weenie eyes.

here’s WPC day 6 and 7: disco: The early part of the updated forecast started with a 06Z/00Z model composite with most weight on the 00Z ECMWF and least on the UKMET. Then the blend transitioned to greater emphasis on the 00Z ECMWF mean, last two ECMWF runs, and 00Z CMC/CMC mean with only modest incorporation of the 06Z GFS/GEFS mean. This solution led to the best continuity possible given the guidance spread. The new 12Z runs suggest that the "most likely" scenario could well change, depending on how the remainder of the 12Z ensemble suite turns out.