here’s WPC day 6 and 7:
disco:
The early part of the updated forecast started with a 06Z/00Z model composite with most weight on the 00Z ECMWF and least on the UKMET. Then the blend transitioned to greater emphasis on the 00Z ECMWF mean, last two ECMWF runs, and 00Z CMC/CMC mean with only modest incorporation of the 06Z GFS/GEFS mean. This solution led to the best continuity possible given the guidance spread. The new 12Z runs suggest that the "most likely" scenario could well change, depending on how the remainder of the 12Z ensemble suite turns out.