nj2va

So this is an AI model generated by the EMCWF based on the Euro data?

Members over 2” ticked up to 23/30 for DC. I’ll take P15 please.

WPC for Days 4 and 5 and snippet of the disco - they don’t seem to favor the Euro’s solution. The 12Z and now the 00Z ECMWF deterministicruns are more offshore where hardly any precipitation is onshoreof the East Coast. This seems unlikely based on other guidance andthe EC ensemble mean and members, but unfortunately theECMWF-initialized machine learning models did not seem to run forthe 12Z cycle, so we lack that piece of information that couldhelp with the model diagnostics. ETA: Oops sorry, posed earlier too.

It doesn’t come out for another hour by the time our storm is in range.

this. I’d much rather see that than 18z keep going towards its 12z ‘where the storm at’ idea.

FYP

TPV looks like it’s oriented slightly differently than 12z too. I would think this would have helped to prevent squashing it but I’m a dumb dumb so what do I know.

20/30 have 2"+ in DC. I'll take it.

Woo! Flood watch.

Yes, I'd rather see the ensembles SE at this point.

Good point. I would guess this is one of those weird Euro MR burps where it has a totally new solution and then comes back (weenie, I know). I remember it did that with some of our other events too.

Remember when the Euro didn’t flip around this much?

Euro has some very light snow showers in the area Sunday night.

Low of 29.

Yeah, I thought the H5 continued to look better.

Got a small downpour cell rolling through here.

Sometimes hard to tell the difference

There’s a snow futility, will it ever snow, a CC forum, and panic room - I think there’s plenty of places to complain/post about the elephant.

Maybe we should try a thing where we create a new LR thread every night until we get a storm. What could go wrong?

Born / raised in Middlesex county and my parents now live in Whiting in Ocean County. Small world!

If GFS is right, I’d suggest chase to the mountains this holiday weekend. This includes 2-3” of upslope overnight/tomorrow but GFS is really honking the upslope potential which would be a boon for Wisp/Canaan.

Damn, the wind is roaring.

Be honest, was that your proudest moment as a dad yet?

A 9,000 ft mountain in Northern MD apparently.

Hoping to get some more colors on here