Good write up by LWX on the snow threat for the highest elevations. When we were at Deep Creek last weekend, people were putting their boats / docks in the lake. Cold start to May on tap.
There is the potential for a significant heavy/wet snow event
at the highest elevations (above 3000FT) in the Alleghenies -
particularly in western Grant, western Pendleton, and northwest
Highland Counties. The 00Z model guidance and ensemble suites
trended higher with QPF and snow totals, with some of the
deterministic guidance producing significant snow totals. Even
though temperatures are forecast to be right around or just
above freezing, snow accumulations are possible at 2000-2500FT,
and likely above 3000FT. The combination of wet snow, "greened-
up" vegetation due to record warmth to start the year, and
strong WSW/W winds has the potential to result in significant
tree and power line damage. This is going to be a prolonged
event from Monday afternoon through Wednesday night, with the
heaviest snow most likely Monday night into Tuesday. The current
forecast calls for storm total snow amounts of 4" or more at
those highest elevations, and maybe 1-2" down to 2500FT. It will
be hard to get accumulations during the day, but certainly
expected at night. Decisions for any winter headlines will be
made this afternoon once the 12z model suite arrives this
morning and midday. Uncertainty remains, so stay tuned to the
forecast for additional updates over the next couple of days.