As mentioned earlier today, the -PNA is going to flood the CONUS with pac air and will take time to scour that out - which is why you see AN even with the favorable ATL. IMO, the PAC has been the bigger factor in our sucky winters of late because it was too hostile to overcome even with a favorable ATL. I’m more bullish this winter because it doesn’t look like we are going to be in a consistent -PNA.
I disagree that “even perfect patterns have been too warm” - I think we just have had some bad luck with timing in some cases. Take the beach blizzards the eastern areas have gotten recently. Was it too warm? No, we were on the losing side of the setup/timing.