nj2va

That’s actually a really cool graphic, thanks for sharing.

Looking good!

You may need to head to Alaska.

It’s crazy how this is the 3rd year in a row with rain/mild temps in the mountains between Christmas and New Years. Hopefully the ski resorts can cash in over MLK and President’s Day to make up lost business.

Is this what happens when chat gpt tries to interpret weather models?

So far TSSN+ and Heisy have called winter over/are out. The list will be 10+ long by Jan 1.

Are we keeping a list of who have been reaped/cancelled winter? Might have our first with TSSN.

No, we could hit my totals with 2 bigger events. See no reason to change that.

This is just one small example but I’ve been paying close attention to snow in northern NH since we’re spending New Years up there. Euro keeps bouncing around nearly as much as GFS with handling features inside 100 hours up there.

Honestly, the GFS OP has been all over the place, even inside 120 hours, so to your point, no one should be writing things off based on OP runs. With so many vorts, I have a feeling we’ll be having things pop up in the medium term vs long lead threats - unless we get some insane blocking thanks to our (now cancelled?) SSW.

Can @pazzo83 and @WesternFringe take it to banter or just create a CC thread? FFS.

If you are solely looking for the most snow in the area, Snowshoe or Canaan would be that - I think both average about 150” a year. I spent my 30th birthday at Snowshoe (first and only time I’ve been there) and I enjoyed the village aspect of that a lot. Personally, I wouldn’t want a house there given the drive and lack of activities in the summer but it is very nice. Of the two, I would pick Canaan given the snowfall, WV state parks nearby, easier drive, and towns of Davis/Thomas. While Wisp/Deep Creek gets less snow (averages 110” in McHenry), we chose to buy a place here back in 2016 because it checked off the most boxes for us - high snowfall, year round activities, 3 hour drive, and a lake. It really is nice being here in the summer when it’s upper 70s with a lake to enjoy. We intended to rent this out but immediately found that we loved coming out here too much to rent it out. So we just use it for ourselves and host family/friends. I wouldn’t pick the PA ski resorts personally given the snowfall differences compared to western MD/WV. YMMV, happy researching!

I was about to call for a GFS upgrade to get it back into being a weenie model. Digital blue at HH, baby!

46 with light rain. A little over 0.3” in the gauge here in McHenry.

I may have been living under a rock but I just realized Weather Bell has soundings, including Euro out to 90 hours.

It’s hard not getting excited (unless you’re Webb or a few downers here) where we’re going in January looking at medium range ensembles. GEFS is pushing + height anomalies into GL on NYD. I picked this panel a few days later as -NAO is settling in but check out the Pacific. -EPO, +PNA (and cross polar flow) with a STJ split flow undercutting the ridge with a parade of vorts continuing to enter the CONUS. Roll this forward a few more days and I find it hard to believe we don’t see accumulating snow in the first 7-10 days of January.

CCB p0rn

A beaut to see. It’s about to go boom.

A very merry Christmas to all. Off to 8a mass to celebrate the birth of Jesus. May we all remember the real reason of the season today.

It’s going to be one of those days get ready.

Yeah, first time in the last couple of years it won’t be 55 and raining all holiday week at the MD/WV ski resorts. Great to see for their business.

What year was it that the pattern flipped in early January with an event that kicked off a heater for the rest of the winter? 2015? Kinda feels like we are heading that way (different patterns yadda yadda).

GFS at least suggests the 500 vort passage next week will offer some upslope to the ski resorts in MD/WV and temps that support snowmaking heading into New Years.

That second wave doesn’t have any NS interaction with the lobe over Canada. That’s probably a good thing for us on the coastal plain (hence your point about it maybe being the one ).

Does that help reinforce the 50/50 lower heights?