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nj2va

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Everything posted by nj2va

  1. nj2va
    It looked better early but the wheels fell off the train towards the end. The confluence does not want to give up.
  2. nj2va
    You’re telling me. By 75, its pressing down a touch more than 18z. ETA: it’s like the giant middle finger stop sign from the NS.
  3. nj2va
    Welp, its the NAM but through 63, the sw ss is stronger resulting in heigher heights in front. Confluence in NE is north of 18z. We’ve got nothing to lose so we might as well analyze the NAM.
  4. nj2va
    Oh they (OP and ENS) have favored SW VA/W NC for days but they’ve been bouncing around up here (similar to the OPs)...maybe that’s due to DC/NVA being on the northern fringe so any jog will have a significant impact here? I don’t remember an event where the snowfall means jumped from run to run like it has with this event. Though honestly, I don’t have a laser precise memory like some here where they remember every event like clockwork. We’re on life support but I still think this comes north some.
  5. nj2va
    They’ve been bouncing around like a fish out of water...6”, 2”, 1”, 7”, 0”, 2”, 1” and so on. The ensembles seem less useful this go around for some reason.
  6. nj2va
    It’s going to come down to the strength of that confluence. If models are overdoing it or it ends up further north by 50-100 miles, then its game on around here. That stuff could easily change within 78 hours, let alone 100-120 hours out.
  7. nj2va
    Any positive that goes in our favor seems to get squashed (pun intended) by stronger confluence. If we could keep that from trending stronger from here on out, I could see how that relaxes/models overdoing it just enough to bring this north inside of 72 hours. But we can’t be looking at no precip north of VA/NC border and expect that much of a shift. Just keep RIC in the 0.5”+ QPF and I’ll remain interested up until the bitter end.
  8. nj2va
    18z Euro similar to 12z. Confluence is a touch stronger than 12z but sharper ss sw and the northern energy over the Dakotas is just south of the 12z position. I can’t get the surface map to load because the weathermodels site was apparently created by the Flintstones using Windows 95. ETA: Bad news is that it wouldn’t be a better outcome than 12z if I had to extrapolate from there.
  9. nj2va
    Someone posted it already, measurable precip is south of EZF which is substantial shift south from 12z. We just have to luck into it on Sunday/Monday as it seems we just bounce back and forth between minor hit and nothing. Hopefully the last run before the storm is a miss....should bode well.
  10. nj2va
    SEems reasonable at this point. 10-30% chance depending on where you are. If things don’t start shifting tomorrow (not just a run here or there), it’ll be a different story.
  11. nj2va
    It seems the GFS has been trending for less interaction between the NS vort coming out of the Dakotas and our ss vort, if you loop the past four runs.
  12. nj2va
    Just north of RIC. EZF is 0.02" of QPF for reference.
  13. nj2va
    I didn't even know we had access to the 6z EPS until I saw PSU's post. A cluster of lows definitely NW of the mean (which is right off OBX) with a few up the Bay. I'd post but we can't do Euro maps unfortunately.
  14. nj2va
    I'm rooting for something that has a general 4-6" swath over Central and Northern VA. Rare to get something like that especially in early December as generally something good up here means its at the expense of RVA.
  15. nj2va
    Not as bad as vice regent.
  16. nj2va
    Thanks for running this! My best showing yet of any MA contests. Maybe a good sign for my overly ambitious snowfall guess.
  17. nj2va
    It's about 58 degrees per this site: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/dc/nwis/uv?cb_00010=on&cb_00010=on&cb_00010=on&cb_00010=on&cb_00095=on&cb_00095=on&cb_00400=on&format=gif_default&site_no=01646500&period=&begin_date=2018-10-12&end_date=2018-10-19
  18. nj2va
    DCA: Nov 3 BWI: Oct 24 IAD: Oct 22 RIC: Nov 5 Tiebreaker: October rainfall at IAD. 6"
  19. nj2va
    Pulling for you guys to see snow tomorrow, especially the posters who had to deal with the changeover during the blizzard. Good luck!
  20. nj2va
    Radar looks great down there
  21. nj2va
    What's under that orange blob in Charles county? Is it snow?
  22. nj2va
    I think someone started one already. Let's keep this the model maps, etc.
  23. nj2va
    I'm not writing off Sunday yet (or Friday/Saturday for the NW burbs).
  24. nj2va
    Very happy to see the southern areas cash in today who missed out on last Saturday's storm. A late blooming winter in the MA!
  25. nj2va
    Great pictures!
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