nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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Don’t think the NAM is going to continue the north trend...if anything its a touch south than 18z. Through 24, 0.1” is in PWC. Such a tight gradient as EZF is 0.5”.
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SV has it. 0.25” went from north of DC to just south of the city. It’s not worth analyzing though.
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Oh noes. SREF bumped south a little from 15z. ::it’snothappening::
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We do better when LWX is playing catchup during the storm. I’d be happy with a dusting.
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It had 0.05” at EZF at 12z.
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Indeed. I’d be feeling pretty good if I was you at seeing at least a few inches based on trends today.
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A lot of virga on the 3k NAM though. Total QPF for those hours over DC have yet to record anything.
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0.1” for MBY almost 0.2” for yours. Gotta like the trends.
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Heck, 15 miles would put DC in 0.25”.
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NAM QPF divides DC in half. SE DC ~0.1” while NW DC 0.0”.
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Whoa NAM. Looks like DC will be the cutoff this run but EZF is approaching 0.75.”
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They’re basically useless. Only thing they help with is passing the time until the 18z suite and sometimes they sniff out (or support) overall north/south trends.
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Pulling out all the stops since we’ve got nothing to lose. 15z SREFs also bumped north. 0.1” up to M/D line, 0.25” north of DC, 0.5” just south of FFX County. 9z had 0.1” south of DC.
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I’d expect ABQ to expand WWA/Watch this afternoon.
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Their pain may be our gain.
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Based on trends so far, I’d say ABQ needs to extend the WSW/advisories.
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Zoomed in Panasonic model. Light green is 0.1” then 0.25”, 0.5”, 0.75”...6z had the 0.1” at EZF. One more shift like that and 0.1” is crossing DC.
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Yes. Quite the shift north. One more nudge like this...
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12z Euro. RIC 0.75”. EZF 0.25”. 0.1” is in southern PWC. eta: actually 0.1” is almost to the border of FFX/PWC.
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Euro looks like its going to continue the north trend.
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I would be feeling more confident if I was you vs here in NVA/DC. I also think banding will set up somewhere on the northern fringe that could easily drop a few inches...just how far north that gets is what we’re ironing out now. If had to wager now, my gut says between Glen Allen and EZF. Flurry watch for Arlington/Alexandria.
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UKMET meteogram for DC is about 0.1”-0.15”.
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Hmm, Canadian triplets, UKMET, and JMA get measurable precip to DC. If the Euro comes in with the same, I may start believing we see some snow here out of this.
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::itshappening::
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The RGEM used to be a better model...last few winters its been pretty bad. HRDRDSRPS isn’t any better probably.
