nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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2” and rippin fatties.
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Rippin’ here. Time for a walk with the dogs.
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Enjoy it man...hope the flakes start flying soon for you (beyond the ones in here).
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I can’t believe you have 3.75” of rain so far.
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Even in the lighter band, still have dendrites so snow growth still good upstairs. Love to track a dendrite as it gently falls from the sky (leesburg04 shoutout).
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Looks really pretty outside. HERPADERPS may just score a coup.
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1.6”. SN.
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34/21. My guess is we’re snowing by 6a here.
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35/20. Temp likely stuck until precip arrives and we wet bulb. DP has been steadily rising.
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If its good news, please share more details.
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Don’t worry, Euro will be here in 30 mins to piss in your cheerios and give you 2” before the flip. In all seriousness, I don’t trust the GFS at all with this storm.
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My DP is up another 4 degrees to 17. 35/17
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HRRR is useless right now. I get why we look at it since we’re waiting for precip to arrive. But its so unreliable and jumpy.
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I wish I was in McHenry for this...P&C there is 4-7” snow and 0.3-0.5” ice.
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35/13. DP starting to slowly rise. Looks like CHO should start to see some light snow soon.
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It will either plant its flag as a reliable meso model and help “Make Canada Great Again” or it’ll be a reminder that the only good thing Canada is known for is to supply fresh highs for our blockbuster/CAD storms.
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00Z HRDPS is a beatdown. It has snow reaching DC between 5-6a. Sleet line still SW of the city through 18z. 0.75” has fallen in DC by then. Lol
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FV3 agrees with the GFS with a flip just before 18z in DC. Probably about 0.4” of snow on FV3 for DC.
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Wow at the 00z GFS. DC loses 700mb just before 18z and 0.5”+ QPF has fallen by 18z. I’d side with the 3k/Euro blend vs the GFS at this point but nice to see GFS in the RGEM camp with a nice thump for DC.
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RGEM has snow starting ~6a in DC. Looks like about 0.4” QPF as snow extrapolating between the 3 hour panels on pivotalweather (likely flip to sleet ~11a)
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35/12.
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Yep, they give me a 50% chance of 2-4”, 25% chance of less than 2”, and 25% chance of up to 7”. Way to go out on a limb and actually make a forecast.
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They went from 3-7” to 3-6” for NW of 95. From 2-5” to 2-4” for 95. Seems reasonable given where we’ve been the last 48 hours. And knowing the CWG, they’ll keep updating their map until the storm is over to make sure they can give themselves an A for their forecast.
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I think that's a tall order. That WAA push at 700 will be strong...I'd be happy if we can hold the snow until 11a.
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00z 3k NAM is about an hour slower on the changeover to sleet in DC from 18z. Extrapolating about 0.35" would fall as snow through 16z which is when we'd flip (0.27" through 15z and 0.53" through 18z)
