nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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Yeah, I think being realistic with the airmass, setup, and your backyard climo is good to tame expectations. I could very well envision I’m getting snow TV, some grassy accumulation, while even NW Arlington and Falls Church (west of the fall line) is getting a slushy 2”. It has that classic fall line look to it. But lots of time to go.
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With how this is evolving, no one should be writing this off IMO, especially along/west of 95.
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Eye balling on the 10:1 (caveats aside) snowfall maps, looks like about 3 more members than 12z have the 2” line into DC on the 18z GEFS. About 19/30.
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Enjoy the digital blue opium for the next 40 minutes before Euro shats on the party.
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DPs on the GFS are in the upper teens to low 20s Saturday morning before precip arrives.
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Kuchera looks good too.
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I don’t think your area is out of the game by any means.
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You forgot worrying about a new vort that popped out of nowhere in the SW USA thousands of miles away that is ruining snow in the mid-atl.
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Are we still worried about suppression?
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The map I posted above is it. 6” crosses DC on Kuchera.
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Spending too much time parsing the Canadian but interesting how more modest WxBell is
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Most likely a Wx Bell output issue. 850s are below 0 at Deep Creek throughout the storm. If the primary tracks into the OH Valley and ruins the mid levels, Deep Creek could mix. I’ve seen in these setups, unless the primary tracks well into the oh valley or the coastal is tracking over central VA, Deep Creek will stay snow. Deep Creek will stay snow in these setups while Snowshoe and Canaan may flip to sleet or rain given their higher elevation, depending on the setup.
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Zoomed in
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Gutentag. I like seeing that 6” line down in the Northern Neck, personally.
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Missing a few panels but doesn’t seem like there’s an OH valley low so I like that.
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2 days ago, this threat didn’t pop up on most people’s radars.
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We can start extrapolating the NAM this time tomorrow.
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What a game. Go UM
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Let’s go Michigan!
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GFS is slower than Euro. Gets precip into the southern parts of our area around 4p and into DC a bit before 7p.
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IMO snow depth maps are talked about too much. Just one tool to use but too much emphasis placed on those.
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They were making snow on a lot of runs that aren’t opened yet so I would think they’re getting ready to open additional runs this week - especially with the upslope later this week and the weekend potential. With the long range guidance, things should be great at the ski resorts throughout Jan/Feb.
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Good time to ski at Wisp right now with low crowds, natural snow, and cold temps.
