nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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I think I finished with 1” last year in Arlington. I agree - I don’t see us doing worse than that here.
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You’re able to tell the future.
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If I stare at it long enough, I can convince myself the purple line just makes it to Garrett County.
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If that look persists into mid-October, it could easily lead to early flakes for the mountains. The later the month goes with that look, it opens the door for the far NW exurbs too (your area, etc).
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I’m not even sure I could round up to an inch last winter.
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Not saying we'll have a blockbuster winter but I put no faith in these seasonal forecasts.
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Yeah, I think so. Clippers are fun sneaky events.
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It seems like we’re due for a fluke event this winter (this is 100% unscientific but probably more accurate than those lame seasonal models/weeklies).
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Oh, that #$#%ing storm.
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I thought this area did quite well in the January '96 blizzard? Or do I have the wrong storm?
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Winter automatically would get a B at least.
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The real way it’ll go down is we’ll get a -NAO in early November to give us the hope of a front loaded winter. Dec 1 flips to a +NAO and holds until March.
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I’ll go 5-15” at home and 60-80” in McHenry. Both below average.
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Famous last words
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Glad y’all are getting snow!
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Can we start a thread for this? It'd be helpful to separate this threat from the LR discussion.
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The only thing I’m tracking is next weekend’s potential storm. I’ve seen enough patterns D10-D15 change on a dime on the ensembles, both for better and for worse to get myself invested in hoping for an amazing pattern. January looked dreadful a few days ago and now we are hopefully looking at a flip but I still don’t put much faith in D10+ looks. I mean I’m rooting for a KU pattern just as much as the next weenie but I’m keeping my expectations in check.
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Just another OP solution 150H+ out...shifts will happen so we’ll see what the GEFS says. Considering where people expected to be 4 days ago, I’m happy we’re tracking something other than 85 degrees. I’ll be in McHenry next weekend for this so rooting for high as impact as possible.
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As you (or PSU or CAPE ?) posted earlier, our big events in blocking tend to happen as the NAO flips to + so this seems to fit that.
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In my experience, CAD is generally undermodeled, especially at long leads. If you go back to the ice storm that happened in western MD a few weeks back, the exact same thing happened out there — LR models underplayed the cold hanging on and as the storm got into the short range, the frozen kept hanging on longer & longer on the models. Obviously each setup is different but always best to look at climo & model “bias” when analyzing an OP run 160H+ out.
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Usual caveats apply...OP run...D10/11 blah blah blah. I can’t tell though...is that truly a -NAO?
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GEPS (not the best ensemble but hey, why not?) trying for a ridge bridge in way out in la la land. Would help displace the TPV south and help build heights into GL. Drink up, weenies.
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Even with the torch period coming up (agree with you on 95/east making a run at 70+), what I like seeing is the cold to our north. Seems likely we’d see that shift east with a more favorable upper air pattern & I always like seeing snowpack building to our NW in Canada. This is probably totally weenie rationale, but I feel like that helps reinforce cooler air if we can get flows out of the NW.
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Yeah, agree that things aren’t looking good for them. I’m at about 16” in McHenry this year where we average ~110” a year. We spent a week there over New Years and went skiing a few times. Not many trails open (~12 or so I think) & a sustained period of low 50s again like it was between Christmas & the 30th will really hurt. But any snow is good and will help them rebuild what they lost during the mild period before NYE (even if its gone after the next warm period).
