nj2va

True, not every time but more often than not. And as clskinsfan points out, many times its that the northern edge of precip is underdone which improves 24H out.

Agreed, I think we see a bump north tomorrow...it happens every time. Unlike December, we don’t need it shift north from central NC.

Latest WPC forecast.

I do like how its getting lighter before 7a now.

Isn’t this the same thing as the sun angle/spring monitor thread?

It very much keeps us in the game IMO. I also think the northern edge of precip is always undermodeled until we’re 24 hours out too.

UKMET won't make any friends in DC/NVA. Looks like it cut QPF on the north side from 00z based on the meteocentre maps. Gets maybe .1-.2mm to DC.

It's a very IMBY kind of sport...especially when we're talking about a narrow swath of snow.

Looks like a few inches on the Ring cameras. They got a good amount of ice this week too. Kids love being outside as its snowing though....well I guess we all do on this forum too.

It’s actually kind of funny...a little bit of the ridge would help us this weekend but we can’t get it when it could help.

While DC/NVA are certainly not out of it, we need the southern trend to halt today and keep us close. If RIC can stay the bullseye today with EZF on the northern edge of 3”, I’d feel good for getting that last 24 hour push north to get NVA/DC into the 3”+ totals. I’m hosting a bunch of family this weekend in Deep Creek including six nieces and nephews who really want to see snow...even just 2-3” there would be great for them.

you won't be laughing when the atmosphere trends so much north and south that the clouds are just pulled apart in front of your eyes, event goes poof, and its 75 on saturday.

Great, now leesburg keeps me out of the joy and fun crowd...and we’re looking at only 3” of snow this weekend? Can this night get any worse? What if it trends north? But its been trending south today too? What if its trends so much north and south that it just evaporates? Does that happen?

I don’t know...a 3-6” storm falling during the day on the weekend just sounds awful. I mean why even snow if its only that much? What’s the point if it doesn’t cover my azalea bushes in the front of the house? And as soon as the snow starts I start getting worried looking at the back edge of the radar. And then i wonder to myself, omg will it ever snow around here again? And before i know, the snow has stopped and I’m back to worrying about it melting so fast with the sun angle of death. Will you hold me? I’m scared.

March now showing up in the long range OPs. Get ready!

FV3 also bumped north but QPF not as robust as the old GFS in NVA/DC. Like where we sit right now given the Euro/GFS.

Really good consistency between the Euro and GFS + being 72 hours out should increase the confidence for the area. Obviously 25-50 mile shifts either way have a big impact on totals. I'll be in McHenry for President's Day weekend skiing so would be happy with 4-6" of fresh powder Saturday.

It seems every thread we have turns into a back and forth with Ji to try to "reason" with him. Would be easier to just give up vs trying to make sense of it.

Seriously. I mean I get looking at all pieces of data/models but to have supposedly the best model in the world giving the area 3-6" inside of 100 hours is what I would want on my side.

ICON will be even further south with Saturday’s storm.

Went from 31 at 9pm in McHenry to 40 at 10pm. Hopefully the ice is melting before the winds kick up and temps drop again in a few hours.

<Ji> 6.1” on 1.22” QPF? Disaster.

Count me out.

Worst thing the Europeans did was add off hour runs of the model.

This is such a terrible post, I don’t even know where to begin.