nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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BWI: 5.2” DCA: 1.9” IAD: 6.2" RIC: 1.9" Tiebreaker: 1.29”
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Heineken is garbage.
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SREFs are useless in this setup imo (well frankly in most setups). Mesoscales should be given the most weight especially as we’re under 48 hours from precip start.
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Wintry scene out here. 27 degrees with light snow the past 2 hours. Windy too.
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Thanks for this...where do you find the zone soundings? I’ve only done the P&C soundings for one location. (Mods, I kept this here vs banter as I thought others could benefit for tracking this threat with this feature. Feel free to move though).
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Yeah, a few days ago I thought we’d be lucky to hold frozen until early afternoon before the deluge. Now its looking more and more likely that frozen is the predominant precip type of the event for DC. 3k NAM keeps DC 32 or below for the whole event (obviously caveat applies that rain at 32 isn’t accreting much aside from elevated surfaces, decks, etc).
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Toss it. It’ll be obsolete soon.
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FV3 looks great. 5-6” on kuchera for dc. 11” for Winchester crew. With sleet and ice.
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FV3 has snow breaking out in DC by 6z.
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GFS targeting south of dc at 66 with very heavy snow.
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I roasted chicken breasts (brined them beforehand) with roasted vegetables (sweet potatoes, carrots, red onions, Brussel sprouts) and made a balsamic reduction to drizzle on top of the vegetables for dinner tonight. Perfect to pair with a fire in the wood stove while its freezing rain outside. We have my parents, my sisters and their families here this weekend (5 kids under the age of 9). Thank goodness for alcohol.
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It’s your appetizer to the main course Wednesday....you look to do really well. Honestly wouldn’t be surprised with double digit totals your way.
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Another bust of a forecast by NWS Pitt. Currently 29 and its been freezing rain all afternoon/evening. Everything is a sheet of ice including the driveway and my hill.
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Not at all. I’m still enthused by this event even if I “only” see 1-2” followed by slop. Fun to track and with the CAD setup, could be some nice surprises since we do well with CAD. The biggest question mark is where the heaviest WAA sets up as PSU noted above.
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Low of 16, currently at 26. Had some spotty freezing rain earlier.
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My guess is Kuchera looks low due to the 700 temps. The cold push is impressive on the Euro though.
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It seems that this event will have more frozen for the cities than last weeks event so we have that going for us. I’d be happy with the general consensus so far of 2-4” on the front end. Anything but 35 degree rain for 24 hours please.
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Exactly, I think faster onset will the key for 95 areas to get a few inches of snow. I tend to think these WAA setups have precip breaking out quicker than modeled so we have that going for us presumably. My bar is seeing more than 30-60 minutes of frozen which would be more than I got out last week’s storm which turned into mid 30s rain for 99% of it for me.
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So that’s NAM, new GFS, and CMC with quicker solutions. 00z is good overall so far.
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FV3 has snow breaking out by 6z Wednesday in DC. Thump to ice to dry slot. I’m a fan. The weenie in me says this will be the new OP so might as well toss the old GFS.
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Amen. I’m a conservative too (a gay, Catholic, conservative no less) and what this country needs desperately is respect, tolerance, and an open mind to differing views. It’s shocking how disrespectful society is in general these days. It seems people only want conversation with those who agree with them — its dangerous and close minded and it happens way too often these days.
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I can’t believe I’m saying this but it oddly feels good to have the NAM on our side...it was never on board with today’s threat even though Euro 3 days out showed 7”.
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FWIW EPS snowfall probabilities for DC: >1” 86% >3” 70% >6” 33%
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6z and 18z only run to hour 90.
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That’s not a bad look there at all. It would be great if we can get that primary into eastern TN at that time to throw the precip into the cold quicker. At this point I’m rooting for hot and heavy WWA given the CAD. “Easier” to score than trying to win a coastal redevelopment battle for our latitude.
