nj2va

Even if its 3” of rain after 7pm, I’m stoked by getting 1” of frozen all day Wednesday. Will be a nice wintry day. Honestly, it’ll be 50 Thursday so even if I got 12” of snow, it’ll be gone by Thursday anyways.

2-4” seems like a good forecast right now for DC followed by hours of sleet and glaze of ice.

Not sure what’s worse...the NAM PBP or the complaints about sleet.

NAMs are in line with what I’m expecting from this 2-4” before flip to sleet. NAM is almost 1” of frozen QPF here. I am 100% on board with that.

Dude, can you use banter for this?

Unfortunately its now time to start the hourly obsession over the HRRR. Get ready for some meltdowns.

Is that where bob c is these days?

Exactly, its maddening sometimes...I have found that turning the pre-load toggle to "on" actually helps load each panel vs skipping some (albeit sometimes slow depending if I'm looking at a zoomed in view of a particular area vs CONUS/regional view).

Yeah, I've used both this winter (but didn't re-up SV this month). Overall I liked the performance/reliability of SV much better. Graphics aren't pretty but the site just seems to work. I do like that Ryan M. has been creating more and more content on Weathermodels. I'll check back in next fall to see if they've fixed the layout/organization issues before committing again.

Does the Euro still have the "bias" of underdoing QPF before events? I feel like that was a thing at one point but I'm not sure if its still thrown out incorrectly if its been fixed.

Here is LWX's current thinking re: ice

I like how they've made "weather cool" again which I like (if that makes sense). But their forecast maps are a complete joke especially when they grade themselves after every storm. "We're giving ourselves an A! We forecasted a 40% chance of 3-6" for DC with a 30% chance of 1-3" and a 30% chance of 6"+ and DC got 3"....bravo by us"

2 or 3:1.

I wish I could like this more than once.

NWS Charleston first to upgrade to warnings (in our subforum): URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Charleston WV 252 PM EST Mon Feb 18 2019 ...Significant winter storm to affect the area late Tuesday through Wednesday... WVZ520-522>524-526-190400- /O.UPG.KRLX.WS.A.0004.190219T2300Z-190220T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KRLX.WS.W.0005.190220T0300Z-190221T0000Z/ Southeast Nicholas-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas- Southeast Pocahontas-Southeast Randolph- Including the cities of Richwood, Snowshoe, Marlinton, and Harman 252 PM EST Mon Feb 18 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of two tenths to four tenths of an inch expected. * WHERE...Southeast Nicholas, Southeast Webster, Northwest Pocahontas, Southeast Pocahontas and Southeast Randolph Counties. * WHEN...From 10 PM Tuesday to 7 PM EST Wednesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute

3k is a pretty crazy storm for Garrett (especially central/eastern parts of the county) and Frostburg/Cumberland. Over 2.5” QPF and temps never get above freezing.

~.35” falls in DC as snow (assuming a noon-ish flip) on the 3k NAM so general 3-4” before sleet in the afternoon.

Yeah, I like the run honestly. 0.45” QPF falls by 18z which should be all or mostly snow considering the 700 line is just barely NE of DC at 18z. We lose 850s ~21/22z. Lots of sleet in the afternoon it seems. I wish I was going to be in Deep Creek for this...looks like a high impact winter storm there...tons of precip out that way with very cold surface temps.

At 18z Wednesday, 850 line is well south of EZF. 700 line is just NE of DC.

Surface temps really drop once precip arrives thanks to our low DPs. Go from 33 at 9z to 29 at 12z.

What do you hate more: events that flip OR the random ass poster from Sheboygan, PA who will only post obs during an event where DC is 35/rain and they’re at 28 and rippin’ fatties.

Nice! Her recipes are well laid out and she has some very good tips and tricks she recommends too. She’s also a local! She lives in northern MD.

Thanks for posting. I could see the afternoon fluctuate between all snow, all sleet, and a mix depending on rates. Will truly be a nowcast thing on Wednesday to see where the heaviest bands set up (wild guess...leesburg to FDK etc).

If you haven’t tried anything from Sally’s Baking Addiction, I highly recommend anything from her. I’ve made dozens of her cookies and cupcake recipes and all are fantastic. She posted a recipe last week on her Instagram page about her cinnamon roll recipe.