nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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Pivotal has snow breaking out in DC at 3z Monday.
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30 or so hours from onset and EZF gets anywhere from a dusting to over a foot of snow. Wild.
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Crazy how solutions are still diverging. RGEM heads south. A really great run for EZF.
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I don’t think RGEM is budging from favoring CVA (near EZF) with the heaviest rates. ETA: Looks like its cutting totals to the north (M/D) and upping totals in the south (RIC).
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This system is definitely dynamic. Blizzard warnings added out in Kansas.
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It wouldn’t be a mid-atl storm if the northern peeps weren’t panicked.
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Very cool stuff!
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Giggidy, giggidy. Zoomed in to the DC area.
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UK and GFS comparison at H51 below. Our SW is a bit further south on the UK but look up north. UK has a closed low vs open wave on the GFS. I think that’s impacting it but I’m stoopid so what do I know.
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Now that we’re under 48 hours, the ‘north trend’ certainly hasn’t popped up so far.
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I thought I remember the UK actually scores well at 500 but it’s been a few years since I last looked. 30 minutes until the Euro.
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Y’all will like the UK.
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Can’t post the 10:1 map from Pivotal for some reason but approx. 10:1 amounts: M/D line: 1” Baltimore: 1-2” DC: 3-4” EZF: 6-7” RIC area: 12”+
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UK is going to be a big hit for Central VA, especially south of EZF. Over a foot for many places.
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Looks like you need to vacation at the Jersey shore instead.
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32” in 24 hours lol
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Yeah, DC was right on the northern edge of the good stuff on the GFS as the storm pulled away. That is going to be high ratio fluff and could easily drop a few inches.
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Not surprising, but very similar to the RGEM.
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Just talking about the immediate DC area, but aside from the NAM handling the WAA different than every other model (including the 3k), we are consistently in the 6-10” swath on every model, including the UK the most southern solution. It seems we’re pretty locked into a 4-8” event, with possible upside depending on mixing and backside as coastal gets going.
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Get this more expansive and it’d be a fun finale.
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This is the 15z sounding, probably some sleet mixing in but column cools by 18z.
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I was wondering where he’s been / wanted to see if his cabin is done in WV yet that he was building. He hasn’t logged in since May 31, hope he’s okay like you said.
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Radar over KS starting to blossom which is our storm.
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Slight cut back to the 6” line shifting south on the RGEM. Bullseye EZF.
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ICON is not going to be like the 12k NAM with the WAA.
