nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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6” on Kuchera is south of DC. What a run.
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Heights lower over the MA/NE which I like to see with this setup.
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ICON is a terrible model but I’d much rather see this to kick off 00z than the other way around. Just go with the snowiest model, common sense be damned.
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That’s a pretty dramatic shift south in the snow totals. The 6” line was way up to Frederick County at 18z.
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I’m basically right on that green/dark blue line. I’ll just assume its huge parachutes and a snow globe.
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R/S line went from northern MoCo to DC this run.
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Always a good night when the Caps beat the Pens. Hi @yoda
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Any snow is good snow, especially in the mid Atlantic.
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It’s only out to hour 27 on WxBell
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Yeah, I think being realistic with the airmass, setup, and your backyard climo is good to tame expectations. I could very well envision I’m getting snow TV, some grassy accumulation, while even NW Arlington and Falls Church (west of the fall line) is getting a slushy 2”. It has that classic fall line look to it. But lots of time to go.
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With how this is evolving, no one should be writing this off IMO, especially along/west of 95.
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Eye balling on the 10:1 (caveats aside) snowfall maps, looks like about 3 more members than 12z have the 2” line into DC on the 18z GEFS. About 19/30.
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Enjoy the digital blue opium for the next 40 minutes before Euro shats on the party.
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DPs on the GFS are in the upper teens to low 20s Saturday morning before precip arrives.
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Kuchera looks good too.
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I don’t think your area is out of the game by any means.
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You forgot worrying about a new vort that popped out of nowhere in the SW USA thousands of miles away that is ruining snow in the mid-atl.
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Are we still worried about suppression?
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The map I posted above is it. 6” crosses DC on Kuchera.
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Spending too much time parsing the Canadian but interesting how more modest WxBell is
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Most likely a Wx Bell output issue. 850s are below 0 at Deep Creek throughout the storm. If the primary tracks into the OH Valley and ruins the mid levels, Deep Creek could mix. I’ve seen in these setups, unless the primary tracks well into the oh valley or the coastal is tracking over central VA, Deep Creek will stay snow. Deep Creek will stay snow in these setups while Snowshoe and Canaan may flip to sleet or rain given their higher elevation, depending on the setup.
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Zoomed in
