nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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12z Euro by precip type...yesterday’s 12z had 100% rain as the precip type for everyone.
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It actually even turns here over to snow Thursday morning (“Wave 1”) and has a legit freezing rain event on NYD for “Wave 2”. Trending way more interesting for the far NW/mountain areas.
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Thanks for showing this comparison. Weaker low + stronger high showing up in more frozen precip here. If that stupid Bermuda High could move further east or weaken, this could be a legit event for some.
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CMC keeps me frozen for the duration of the storm (sleet to start then freezing rain). Too bad CMC is a terrible model. I do think it bears watching for the far N&W areas for some frozen to start before flipping to rain.
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Also EPS has a signal at that timeframe for a low in the east at the end of its run based on the MSLP anomaly maps - haven’t looked into the individual plots but seems like a decent signal just based on this map. Perhaps we can get the PNA to flex at the right time.
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Canadian ensemble looks very similar to the EPS (EPS a little less pronounced of the PNA ridge). That’s an impressive west -NAO.
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Pivotal has it.
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Yep, agreed. I wouldn’t sleep on that chance yet...definitely shows the most opportunity over the next week (which doesn’t say much ).
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18z GFS para has the coastal next weekend. Digital snow!
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What could go wrong? Let’s see what the GEFS says but you could see the evolution just on H5 and it was screaming east coast threat. The closed 500 low north of MN was atypical for this area to see snow (I think) but DC got digital snow so who cares!
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Eastern Shore special but majority of the area gets in on the fun. Sign me up.
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GFS cooking something up next weekend. LP forming off OBX with a closed 500 low over eastern TN/KY.
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That is some torrential rain verbatim on the 00z GFS for NYE/NYD. 2-4” of rain across the area. Almost a carbon copy of yesterday.
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Yeah, unfortunately the EPS wasn’t biting on the OP’s idea. I counted a handful of solutions that suggested something even close to what the OP was depicting.
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I’ll take the Euro OP’s depiction over the GFS, please. Pops a low on the southern part of the front and keeps the mountains frozen. That depiction would keep western areas outside the mountains in the game for frozen too vs the GFS cold chasing precip front setup.
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More yellows and oranges for your [soggy] backyard. In all seriousness, I think we should all just pack our patience...I do think we’ll see an evolution but it’ll probably be slower than many want.
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If you liked the weather for Christmas Eve, you’ll LOVE what the 12z GFS is cooking up for New Years Eve.
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For those wondering the differences between a west or east based block, the link below is a great read: https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/nao
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Enjoy your lead @GATECH...I’m coming for you
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Never say never! RIC could see 700” of snow this year
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Poor @CAPE
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BWI: 12.9 DCA: 4.8 IAD: 14.2 RIC: 0.3 SBY: 19.2
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Last year had a cold November (-AO if i remember correctly) followed by...well we know what followed that. Not saying we should expect it to be 100% opposite of last year — but what happens in November doesn’t set the stage for the rest of the winter is my point.
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front loaded especially if it means a white Christmas. Delayed usually means denied around here
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I still think we’ll ‘luck’ into a storm this year even if the indices say we’re fooked...its hard to have two back to back abysmal winters.
