nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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Yeah the closest 925 gets is just SE of Andrews early Wednesday afternoon but as you said 950 and below is the ‘issue’. I’d think rates would overcome but if its light precip, there’d be a lot of drip drip drip. I do think once things ‘get going’, even DC crashes.
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It doubled QPF at Deep Creek from 18z. Barely 0.4” at 18z to just about 0.9” at 00z. Love seeing that.
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Wow, Bills are rolling
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It’s pretty bad with thermals.
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I’d start looking at the NAM 24-36 hours out, with any type of seriousness. I mean, I don’t hate the depiction but its hot garbage right now.
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It’s a great bookmark during events. Good luck tomorrow, hope its a nice overperformer as you’re staring down a bigger one Wednesday.
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Use this: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17 Tabs at the top can be used to check 850 temps, analysis, etc (and other layers).
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Getting to the point where the OPs should be given more weight.
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35 at Deep Creek. Unfortunately 50 here.
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You/Winchester/Smithburg/Hagerstown/Westminster are going to bullseye I think. Depending on where the banding sets up, I could see a chance for very localized reports of 2 feet.
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Niiiiiice, 5-10”...wouldn’t mind a bump up on QPF for Deep Creek on the Euro but I’ll roll the dice with ratios.
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Hey, maybe this will be the time it scores a coup.
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It’s really out of its wheelhouse but I’ll clutch the 18z NAM until something better comes along. Beat down 81 corridor and mountains.
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I’m thinking 2 feet by Friday for Snowshoe.
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That’s the best the UK has looked for Deep Creek so I’m hugging that for now.
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Are we sure this is a Nina?
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I hope you are able to find some peace right now during this tremendous loss. I can’t imagine the pain and loss but I will keep your family in my prayers, especially this holiday season.
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Windows open...beautiful spring day!
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I also liked seeing GFS bump up QPF totals for the mountains and starting to clue in some upslope as the coastal pulls away.
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The CCM/deform band depicted on the GFS is serious bidness at hr 90 - runs straight the majority of the forum. Even with cities mixing/flipping to rain, with that deform band depicted, it should make everyone happy.
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You’ll do really well tomorrow. Easily warning-criteria. I wish I was heading out to Deep Creek today vs Tuesday night...save some snow for Wednesday!
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Unpopular opinion but I loved the NAM. Its a mauling for 81 west to the mountains. As we get in closer to the event, its becoming every man/woman for themselves with rooting for the best solution for their backyard.
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I realize this thread is basically focused on this week’s medium range threat but the long range continues to look good. Of course never a guarantee to actually get frozen, but the blocking continues to look stable. Uber long range wanted to mute it a bit but it just keeps reshuffling. I like that the PV doesn’t look to be a tight concentrate circle...amazing what higher heights in the NAO/AO domains will do.
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Ji won’t be happy with Ellinwood’s map. “Leesburg is basically the new 95”
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Great analysis as always. Just hoping for at least 5” in Deep Creek from this and I’d be happy. Hoping we all cash in. Good luck with studying!
