nj2va

Yes, its an OP but what a gnarly west based -NAO its spitting out in the MR. Yes, I’m sure many will freak out at the surface depiction of another cutter but I’ll take my chances with a -NAO like this as we approach prime climo.

MLK 2022 was a top 5 favorite storm for me - the upslope was epic for ‘part 2’ of that. Blizzard conditions at times. IIRC, you were staying in Accident or close by and chased that event right? The 500 energy that enhanced the upslope was textbook. This is definitely not that, ha.

Garrett County may get some orographic enhancement from the LP as it’s in our area. Upslope would come on the back-end as the low is heading NE away from the area. You want to root for the follow up wave that GFS has been keying in to deepen the storm and ‘bomb’ it out for SNE. That energy as it crosses the mountains and deepens the SLP off the east coast would provide some extra lift for upslope snow showers. 18z GFS shows this scenario. Garrett County and the mountains get more snow from the upslope than the initial storm.

It’s amazing how SNE can just sneeze and back into a SECS under 100 hours.

That 2nd piece of energy (which also helped to ‘ruin’ our threat) keeps getting stronger which I think is one of the reasons why this has trended towards a big event in SNE. Too bad we couldn’t have tapped into that.

12z Euro

It’s free on pivotalweather. Deep Creek gets about 6” on the UK, after taking into account the stuff this morning.

Yeah, that hasn’t helped us at all. It started showing up on ensembles the other day and clearly hurting us on the OP runs as this has gotten closer.

18z Saturday sounding at DCA. Super close but did get a tick colder than 6z at the same time.

It seems like somewhere between Frostburg and Hancock along 68 will be the jackpot zone for this. Models are honing in on that area.

Not even greyed this time

6z Euro

We’re wine club members at Stone Tower. Beautiful spot up there on Hogback. You should do well even compared to Leesburg.

Is Heisy worried though?

NE MD pummeled

It’s like whiplash every 12 hours.

I heard the Philly subforum would care more

Here’s the 7z NBM

Let’s nudge this 30 miles SE.

I’m glad I took this week off from work for an extra week of PTO. Giving me good practice for 1a Euro runs for our KU in 2 weeks.

00z GFS says busy times ahead.

It seems that globals tonight at 00z must be getting some new data that they’ve all made this shift to a colder/snowier solution. Euro will be telling in an hour.

Looking at the Pivotal maps, both 850 and 925 stays S/E of DC on the UKIE which is a massive improvement.

While we wait for UK and Euro, I wanted to share 850s on the CMC too. While CMC evolution is different than the GFS, similar story with colder solution than CMC 12z.

Pretty amazing difference on the GFS with 850 temps. At its warmest, 18z had the 850 line just west of Dulles into Loudoun County while 00z keeps it down in Charles County, MD.