nj2va

Just please beat the Steelers so they’re knocked out of the playoffs.

3k looks sleety for a few hours before the flip to rain.

Great use of tax dollars.

00z GFS OP shows the potential post MLK. Looking forward to see the ensembles.

30 here at home in Alexandria. 19 out at McHenry.

Old news bro. @WxUSAF already posted it. You were too busy chasing our trace of snow Saturday.

I now remember why I have him or her on ignore.

Quite the Loudoun gradient. 0.5” to over 6” from SE to NW. 0.1” line runs through MBY, woo!

It’s amazing what cancelling winter can do for you.

3k precip type, take the freezing rain map with a grain of salt.

This isn’t an ice storm setup. It’s not like it’s in the teens leading up to this and it’s drizzling for hours. I’d cut those down significantly.

And west to Garrett County.

That’s because DCA is a joke of a recording site. I’m like a mile from there and local PWS in our neighborhood have gotten below freezing 6 times in two weeks.

Yes, its an OP but what a gnarly west based -NAO its spitting out in the MR. Yes, I’m sure many will freak out at the surface depiction of another cutter but I’ll take my chances with a -NAO like this as we approach prime climo.

MLK 2022 was a top 5 favorite storm for me - the upslope was epic for ‘part 2’ of that. Blizzard conditions at times. IIRC, you were staying in Accident or close by and chased that event right? The 500 energy that enhanced the upslope was textbook. This is definitely not that, ha.

Garrett County may get some orographic enhancement from the LP as it’s in our area. Upslope would come on the back-end as the low is heading NE away from the area. You want to root for the follow up wave that GFS has been keying in to deepen the storm and ‘bomb’ it out for SNE. That energy as it crosses the mountains and deepens the SLP off the east coast would provide some extra lift for upslope snow showers. 18z GFS shows this scenario. Garrett County and the mountains get more snow from the upslope than the initial storm.

It’s amazing how SNE can just sneeze and back into a SECS under 100 hours.

That 2nd piece of energy (which also helped to ‘ruin’ our threat) keeps getting stronger which I think is one of the reasons why this has trended towards a big event in SNE. Too bad we couldn’t have tapped into that.

12z Euro

It’s free on pivotalweather. Deep Creek gets about 6” on the UK, after taking into account the stuff this morning.

Yeah, that hasn’t helped us at all. It started showing up on ensembles the other day and clearly hurting us on the OP runs as this has gotten closer.

18z Saturday sounding at DCA. Super close but did get a tick colder than 6z at the same time.

It seems like somewhere between Frostburg and Hancock along 68 will be the jackpot zone for this. Models are honing in on that area.