nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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I'm likely heading to Deep Creek for this one -- happy to not be in the mix zone for a change.
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But did you see the 50/50 low?
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i'm worried about the back edge already
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@mattie g bringing the laughs to the model thread...I lol'd a few times at his posts in there.
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Who's starting the thread?
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Overall, that's a great run IMO. yes cities mix/flip to rain for a time but then flip back verbatim as the coastal cranks (its the game we play along 95). A few minor adjustments would be all frozen even for 95.
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That's basically a textbook setup/evolution for the mid-atlantic.
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Someone smarter and with a better memory can probably correct me, but I feel like there's a correlation between -NAO relaxation and big mid-atlantic snowstorms.
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It always seems the 6z/18z runs of the EPS look worse for us than 0z/12z.
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I signed up for Weather Models last week and I still hate the interface as much as prior winters. It’s impossible to navigate and find maps easily. Are the Model Labs meant to be used for stuff? Although I guess on the other hand we do get 500 maps posted in the threads so I basically don’t even need it.
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It’s from all the pollen from the pending spring-like weather in a few weeks.
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Weaker primary on the GGEM and only gets it as far north as the ky/tn border. HP trending better and better too.
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H5 look has been slowly changing over the last few runs of the GFS. It’s trending more towards a broad positively titled trough. I’m not smart enough to comment but I think thats probably contributing to the lack of consolidation?
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The 2m 0c line is up in southern Canada Monday afternoon as precip is nearby on the 00z GFS.
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ICON is a brief frozen to rain deal for the mid-week threat. Coastal doesn’t take over until off the NJ/LI coast.
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Last winter saw an ice storm where about 0.5”-0.6”+ ice accreted in Garrett County..lost power for a few days.
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18z will save us
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LWX Winter Threat 7 is currently at "Yellow"/Slight for west of 95 and the mountains. I don't think outside the mountains last year had anything but Green.
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That is basically a classic look for us. Trends today with 12z have been very good.
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Here’s the NA view on the 12Z GEFS leading up to next Thursday’s potential...legit -NAO and 50/50 ish low. Nice look there.
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Definitely a signal. Hour 168 has a LP off the coast and HP across SE Canada.
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Was that after 3 bourbons? Must have been.
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GFS says head to the mountains for the 16/17 storm.
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Honestly a 10% chance of 0.25” of snow/sleet QPF for D5 for the mountains of MD and WV could probably be shown all winter long.
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I remember last winter he took long breaks and talked about needing the break to focus on other things — and honestly I thought he was getting sick of it. But maybe I’m mis-remembering.
