nj2va

4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

UK is going to be a big hit for Central VA, especially south of EZF.  Over a foot for many places.

Can’t post the 10:1 map from Pivotal for some reason but approx. 10:1 amounts:

M/D line:  1”

Baltimore: 1-2”

DC: 3-4”

EZF:  6-7”

RIC area: 12”+

UK is going to be a big hit for Central VA, especially south of EZF.  Over a foot for many places.

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

I can’t deal with this Jan 11 storm man. Can we delay it a few days. Please??

Looks like you need to vacation at the Jersey shore instead.

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

LOL..loli strip of 30 in SE Jersey

32” in 24 hours lol

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Yeah the coastal is the thing I really want to trend better.  Unfortunately as of now it looks like the globals (GFS/Euro/CMC) have that area of coastal snow just a little south of Dc Metro, would like to see that bump north. 

Yeah, DC was right on the northern edge of the good stuff on the GFS as the storm pulled away.  That is going to be high ratio fluff and could easily drop a few inches.

3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Big hit for all or just south?

Not surprising, but very similar to the RGEM.

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm not going to lie, the model differences at this point just have me....confused.   Relative to our area, they are just all over the place.  

Just talking about the immediate DC area, but aside from the NAM handling the WAA different than every other model (including the 3k), we are consistently in the 6-10” swath on every model, including the UK the most southern solution.  It seems we’re pretty locked into a 4-8” event, with possible upside depending on mixing and backside as coastal gets going.

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This is the part I want to max out. Major fluff potential.

Get this more expansive and it’d be a fun finale.

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

WB has it as sleet or something according to Will's map.  You have the sounding?  Sometimes WB paints sleet in snow/close snow situations 

ETA: Nevermind.  Saw you edited and said you checked the sounding

This is the 15z sounding, probably some sleet mixing in but column cools by 18z.

4 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Dang he's been gone since May i hope everything is ok

I was wondering where he’s been / wanted to see if his cabin is done in WV yet that he was building.  He hasn’t logged in since May 31, hope he’s okay like you said.

Radar over KS starting to blossom which is our storm.

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z RGEM also nothing like 12z NAM... is a hit

Slight cut back to the 6” line shifting south on the RGEM.  Bullseye EZF.

ICON is not going to be like the 12k NAM with the WAA.

2 minutes ago, Negnao said:

Fv3 looks nice. 

All snow for dc, and barely any sleet north of EZF.  

3 minutes ago, katabatic said:

It's been snowing steadily for the last couple hours. What an amazing deep winter day. 12.2 here

Amazing stuff.  Jebwalk through the woods later should be pretty awesome (albeit cold).  

7 minutes ago, LP08 said:

I don’t by the 12k NAM basically removing all of the WAA thump that’s on practically every other model, including the 3k.

Yeah, hard to take that depiction seriously when the 3k differs + every other model as well.  Unless the (better) models show the same thing, that scenario seems unlikely right now.

Ended up with about 10”, another SN/SN+ shower pushing through.  Currently 11 degrees. 

3k thermals much better for DC than 12k.

Sleet was knocking on Baltimore’s doorstep at H48 before thermals cooled again by H51.

4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

I'll take the over for a trillion dollars

We’ll be in a dry slot and the N Md/PA crew will be like “omg I can’t believe I just measured 3” in the last 30 minutes, not sure how that happened” 

7 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said:

Me too, should be a great game.

If Penn St wins, are you going to the championship?

6 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said:

Haha, fair enough. Though more focused still on college football and the Orange Bowl Thursday night. Go Nittany Lions!!

My wife and her family are big DC sports fans, so I’m pretty used to the ribbing I get!

That is going to be a great game! I wish it was the final honestly. 
 

1 minute ago, wawarriors4 said:

As locked in as I’ve seen it in a while. Still feel there’s some mix that makes it to mby. 6” (maybe 8”) plus seems pretty plausible.

Honestly, I was cool with you getting jackpot’d until it dawned on me you’re a philly sports fan (I forgot).  Hope you get 6” of sleet.  

2 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said:

Whew, that is noice ❄️ 

Really great run for your area too. Euro seems locked in.

Just now, yoda said:

DCA at 09z MON on 00z EURO is +SN and 23/24 degrees

La la lock that shit up.  

And yes, heavier bands made it more north just past DC this run which helped punch up totals slightly there.