nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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Do you remember last winter?
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Monday’s storm really blows up in the 50/50 region.
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You know what time it is? ICON time!
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-NAO with serious staying power on both the EPS and GEFS through the end of the run. That will help play traffic cop with the shortwaves.
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Ah, good point on the orographic enhancement...we’ve had the house for 4 years and its kind of crazy this is the first big coastal since then so I need to figure out the climo specifics there during these events. Appreciate the details. It always amazes me when its sunny and 45 in Frostburg and 28 with light snow falling all day in Garrett County. Although that’s childplay compared to your new place in Randolph - your view is unreal.
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Agreed, I think that area to perhaps as far west as Hancock (depending on how tucked in the coastal is) are in the sweet spot for this for highest totals. And yeah I figure I’ll have less QPF out there but will somewhat offset with better ratios.
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6z EPS snowfall mean almost identical to 00z. 6” along or just west of 95 and increasing west from there to 8-9” in the WV panhandle/81/mountains (note: this is just for the Wed/Thursday event).
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Yeah, I think the reason the 6z gave those areas so much was due to the evolution of the 500 low...it closes off basically over the LI sound.
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Also to note, 6z GFS has precip breaking out for the SW parts of the forum within 100 hours.
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Latest LWX map....not bullish.
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This will be the first coastal that I’ll likely be out at Deep Creek...curious if the NW shield of precip is undermodeled in intensity/coverage on a model run like the 6z GFS.
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Amazing what blocking and a 50/50 low can do. I almost forgot what those are like around here.
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That’s what I was thinking for the deform snow, too. 81 and the mountains are crushed...loving this run for Deep Creek, not gonna lie.
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Updated WPC odds at Day 5 now have 95 corridor in 50% contour of 0.25”+ frozen QPF. NW of 95 is 70%. Bullish for 5 days out.
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Thanks for responding and sounds like a great upgrade.
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FWIW, Canadian has been pretty consistent for 3 runs in a row (albeit trending even better for us). I’d love to see it score a coup with these high end solutions.
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I thought I remember Bob last year talking about how GEFS were known to just follow the OP in lock step. Anyone know how the ensembles have been performing since the upgrade?
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Shouldn’t you be looking for the UKMET?
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Uh oh, NA101 beating Yoda to a model PBP. Fightin’ words
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You are setting yourself up for disappointment if 5 days out, your bar is 16”.
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Canadian looks closer to a Miller A than a hybrid.
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Just about to say...incoming based on 108. 1037 H and snow breaking out in SW/southern VA.
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Ok I think I finally got the correlation between the two threats. If Monday is amped + rainier + snow + warm wet + less amped + warm snow - less amped - more amped (squared) + snowier Monday solution = better Wednesday/Thursday solution
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Textbook mid-Atlantic setup.
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Incoming at 108
