nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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It doubled QPF at Deep Creek from 18z. Barely 0.4” at 18z to just about 0.9” at 00z. Love seeing that.
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Wow, Bills are rolling
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It’s pretty bad with thermals.
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I’d start looking at the NAM 24-36 hours out, with any type of seriousness. I mean, I don’t hate the depiction but its hot garbage right now.
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It’s a great bookmark during events. Good luck tomorrow, hope its a nice overperformer as you’re staring down a bigger one Wednesday.
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Use this: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17 Tabs at the top can be used to check 850 temps, analysis, etc (and other layers).
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Getting to the point where the OPs should be given more weight.
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35 at Deep Creek. Unfortunately 50 here.
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You/Winchester/Smithburg/Hagerstown/Westminster are going to bullseye I think. Depending on where the banding sets up, I could see a chance for very localized reports of 2 feet.
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Niiiiiice, 5-10”...wouldn’t mind a bump up on QPF for Deep Creek on the Euro but I’ll roll the dice with ratios.
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Hey, maybe this will be the time it scores a coup.
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It’s really out of its wheelhouse but I’ll clutch the 18z NAM until something better comes along. Beat down 81 corridor and mountains.
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I’m thinking 2 feet by Friday for Snowshoe.
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That’s the best the UK has looked for Deep Creek so I’m hugging that for now.
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Are we sure this is a Nina?
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I hope you are able to find some peace right now during this tremendous loss. I can’t imagine the pain and loss but I will keep your family in my prayers, especially this holiday season.
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Windows open...beautiful spring day!
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I also liked seeing GFS bump up QPF totals for the mountains and starting to clue in some upslope as the coastal pulls away.
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The CCM/deform band depicted on the GFS is serious bidness at hr 90 - runs straight the majority of the forum. Even with cities mixing/flipping to rain, with that deform band depicted, it should make everyone happy.
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You’ll do really well tomorrow. Easily warning-criteria. I wish I was heading out to Deep Creek today vs Tuesday night...save some snow for Wednesday!
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Unpopular opinion but I loved the NAM. Its a mauling for 81 west to the mountains. As we get in closer to the event, its becoming every man/woman for themselves with rooting for the best solution for their backyard.
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I realize this thread is basically focused on this week’s medium range threat but the long range continues to look good. Of course never a guarantee to actually get frozen, but the blocking continues to look stable. Uber long range wanted to mute it a bit but it just keeps reshuffling. I like that the PV doesn’t look to be a tight concentrate circle...amazing what higher heights in the NAO/AO domains will do.
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Ji won’t be happy with Ellinwood’s map. “Leesburg is basically the new 95”
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Great analysis as always. Just hoping for at least 5” in Deep Creek from this and I’d be happy. Hoping we all cash in. Good luck with studying!
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“Meh” “fringed” “not great even up here” “by tomorrow, it’ll be congrats Albany”
