nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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It’s our mid season slump starting earlier than expected. We’ll snap out of it eventually. Happens every year. But yes total turd tonight (split screen between Baltimore game and Caps)
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Just another OP solution 150H+ out...shifts will happen so we’ll see what the GEFS says. Considering where people expected to be 4 days ago, I’m happy we’re tracking something other than 85 degrees. I’ll be in McHenry next weekend for this so rooting for high as impact as possible.
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As a neutral football fan, let’s go Vikings and Ravens!
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As you (or PSU or CAPE ?) posted earlier, our big events in blocking tend to happen as the NAO flips to + so this seems to fit that.
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In my experience, CAD is generally undermodeled, especially at long leads. If you go back to the ice storm that happened in western MD a few weeks back, the exact same thing happened out there — LR models underplayed the cold hanging on and as the storm got into the short range, the frozen kept hanging on longer & longer on the models. Obviously each setup is different but always best to look at climo & model “bias” when analyzing an OP run 160H+ out.
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Welcome to the Mid Atlantic!
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Usual caveats apply...OP run...D10/11 blah blah blah. I can’t tell though...is that truly a -NAO?
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High Wind Watch for the mountains and western highlands.
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Daffodils are sprouting up here.
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Country music anyone?
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Honestly, never heard of him.
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Mood swing roller coaster in full effect. Hang on.
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I’ll be at Deep Creek MLK weekend...hoping for a big event. One of my favorite events since having the house out there was MLK weekend last year...had about 6” of snow which turned into ice & got about 0.25” on top of the snow. Then we had WCs -15 or so the next day. I love interesting events like that.
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Cold/dry here is usually good for the mountains with clippers/upslope, which selfishly is good for spending weekends out there.
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Same...our 3rd line needs to wake the F up.
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Is the sky blue in DC? Can our obs thread be a disaster with complaining?
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Oh I totally understand your analysis, especially since you repeat it 50 times. (Kidding). But in all seriousness, if we want a biggie or above average winter, likely need at least a good pattern. Now, back to analyzing the D45 look.
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Nice obs! Send a few pics if you can. What a shutout pattern...
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Maybe its just my opinion but I think some just love to chase the perfect unicorn pattern when it seems like we fluke our way to chances more often than not in setups that aren't 100% perfect. There'll be 5 pages of debate in the LR thread about why a setup on D15 isn't perfect when in fact that setup turns into a 2-4" storm 15 days later. I used to love the LR stuff but its kind of lame now tbh.
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Yo Caps crew! Great win for the good guys and Sammy continues his hot streak....came out in the 2nd/3rd and blew it open. Oshie was close to a hat trick at the end. Big Metro game tomorrow night vs Flyers. @nw baltimore wx @Chris78 @Scraff
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The flip was fun for sure....one of the most impressive flips I remember here in a marginal event. I wish I kept my Christmas lights up! Got about 0.8”. Congrats to the NW crew, great pics!
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Just got home, sidewalks and roads are wet but grass/cars/trees covered. Big fatties now.
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Sidewalks caving in Arlington. Even Clarendon Blvd (main road through Arlington) was slushy.
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Best rates since 2016 it seems here in Arlington
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Wow, SN+ with big fatties. Can't even see Georgetown from Rosslyn.
