nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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Just got back from Orangetheory and looking at the Euro now. The bullseye is Hancock - Hagerstown down to Winchester....2"+ QPF. 1.4" for me
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Hey, at least we have the lowest sun angle of the year we're working with. We wouldn't need to read 650 posts about March sun.
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Go baby go. PSU, great pics...glad the kids had a blast.
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Something is off with wxbell's 18z NAM maps. It messed up the total precip too. I can guarantee that 1.2" of QPF isn't an inch of snow here.
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Close to 1.3" QPF all frozen out here. Hancock-Cumberland 1.7-1.8" of QPF. Juiced.
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Solid first guess but based on QPF trends today, they'll need to increase the mountains.
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Uh oh, Ji gets 0"
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New M1 MacBook Airs are sick....the apple-designed chips have made them super fast. I'm about to purchase one after doing some research.
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48 hours ending Friday as there’s some light snow showers in the area until then.
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Great map. And finally out of your dreaded grey mixing zone!
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The banding is starting to show up on the Euro further west, even getting a little bit of it past Cumberland. You’re in a really good spot for this.
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It’s a huge hit. Best Euro run for out here. You get smoked.
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UK is not a good model especially if trying to narrow in on precip totals, thermals, etc. Basically beyond track, I wouldn’t even look at it.
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GFS has been consistently getting wetter out here from yesterday’s runs. 18z yesterday threw 0.3” QPF here...today’s 12z (including upslope) is just shy of an 1”. 3k starting tomorrow will start to be useful to hone in on mesoscale features.
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I took a quick peak and it looks very similar to the 00z run. Really clocks western areas again. Since the margins matter for the cities, it looks like its a touch warmer at 925 (haven’t checked surface but would imagine that is the same).
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Wisp cam: https://www.wispresort.com/Wisp-Cam/ - top of the hill obscured by snow. Today and Wednesday will be great for business for the local ski resorts. They need it after last season (and the added costs of running in a pandemic).
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That sounds awesome. I feel like I remember in years a past, you make homemade biscotti too around Christmas?
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Mountains cashing in right now. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a double digit report from Snowshoe.
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I like seeing the return of “Snow, heavy at times” back in the point and click.
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I’m not just saying this because it shows less snow but I just don’t think its that great of a model. I’m sure someone who is smarter/follows its performance more closely can comment, but I never get the “Euro will follow the UK” since it seems that rarely happens.
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Yeah, I’m personally rooting for higher QPF further west so that LP looks good to me.
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UKIE at 72
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People should take both the positive snow depth maps and the 10:1 snow maps with a grain of salt — in marginal situations, 10:1 as gospel is setting yourself up for disappointment but sometimes the positive snow depth maps are underdone especially for things you cited above or UHI issues, etc. It’d be better to look at the QPF and soundings vs a computer generated snowmap.
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Yeah the closest 925 gets is just SE of Andrews early Wednesday afternoon but as you said 950 and below is the ‘issue’. I’d think rates would overcome but if its light precip, there’d be a lot of drip drip drip. I do think once things ‘get going’, even DC crashes.
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It doubled QPF at Deep Creek from 18z. Barely 0.4” at 18z to just about 0.9” at 00z. Love seeing that.
