nj2va

Does Washington have pass defense? Goodness.

Wow, what a play by Heinicke there to get the TD.

Glad to see the Bills win.

Long review. Should be a fumble.

Already 5:12 in Deep Creek.

Seats felt warm when I got in the car today. Step 1 to sun angle season.

Yup. Made no sense. I wonder if the doink missed FG comes back to make the difference..

This Bills/Colts game is shaping up for a great ending.

As a visual kinda guy, these posts where you mark up the maps is really helpful to look for things I don’t even know to look for sometimes. Appreciate the time you put into stuff like this.

Looping the 12z GEFS precip type maps across the members showing lots of opportunities (hint: blue) across the area beginning around the 18th or so. I think it would bring another smile to @CAPE’s face, per his comment this morning.

It’s really not that big of a deal to have one thread - my issue is more when we get closer to an event. Its gotten so absurd with ‘omg, don’t start a thread for a storm because we’ll jinx it’ that when we do get a threat within 4 days, we’re still trigger shy so the LR thread becomes a discussion about SSWE, teleconnections, 96 hour storms, etc. That gets too much.

The powers to be have spoken on that lol

Just so I’m following...are we looking past the pattern change that gets us into a great look in the MR to now looking at the 2nd pattern change that is the unmitigated disaster in the LR? I forgot why I hated LR pattern tracking.

I was drinking my coffee and scrolling through and thinking “wow, maybe it’ll be a positive day in here” after seeing CAPE’s comments. Then I got to the “unmitigated disaster” part and laughed.

It was sad just watching the last new Jeopardy episode that Alex Trebek taped as the host. What a legend he was. RIP.

If you didn’t live there, I’d be pissed that your area was getting more snow than DC. Enjoy the storm!

GEFS says temper your expectations for snow through the next 9-10 days outside the mountains. While a threat could pop up in the short/medium range and/or next week trends back into a minor event, today’s guidance has been pointing to the more favorable period many here have talked about for increased snow chances. It sucks, but it is what it is. If the strong ULL works out over MLK weekend, I’d suggest people chase to the mountains of MD/WV and get your dose of snow. Good for the psyche.

It would be best for some on here's mental health if they just step away from the LR thread for the next 8 days. I imagine its going to get ugly (or -ier) in there, fast.

The only thing about that 500 map that I missed picking up on from the 6z version is I wonder if that suggests a Miller B pattern given the deepest 500 anomalies are centered north of our latitude. @CAPE - would we want those focused a bit further south?

If you like SE snow, GFS says 'look at me D12!'

at times a whole page of a thread is just quotes of long posts and images, lol

We often score when the NAO relaxes.

The heck if I know....the smarter ones could comment way better I'm sure. A few thoughts I have: 1) The H5 pattern gets exponentially better for snow chances in the region beginning in a week or so. If it happens verbatim, it would take an epic fail for MA standards to not see snow (people should temper their KU expectations since those are hard to come by). 2) You're beginning to see signs on the GEFS snow mean maps that the period beginning in a week or so has some legs if you compare that to what we usually see for a 5-7 day snow mean. While I don't live and die by snow mean maps, they're helpful in spotting uber LR trends in potential. Yeah, I'm sure its the weenie in me saying this but I find it hard to believe we are shutout the rest of the month.

6z GEFS isn’t enthused on snow chances for the next 7-8 days. Continues to suggest our chances increase after the 15th/16th. ETA: Here’s the 7 day mean ending 1/22. if we can’t score a warning-level event in this pattern along 95, time to see PSU and Ji go scorched earth.

I haven’t looked at the surface at all but 500 is north of 18z and heights are a good bit higher along the coast. Hopefully translates to the surface... ETA: No dice.