nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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I haven’t looked at the surface at all but 500 is north of 18z and heights are a good bit higher along the coast. Hopefully translates to the surface... ETA: No dice.
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Vort on the GFS looks good through 84 but we need that confluence shred factory to lift north to hold it together in the next couple frames. Heights are a touch higher than 18z along the coast. Let’s see what happens from here.
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Looks better at H5 than 18z GFS at H90. What could go wrong?
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Weeklies are useless Week 3 and beyond but I’d argue they’re useless every week....
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We’ll be talking about the epic MLK day blizzard with that pattern.
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I’m not a fan of living and dying by snowfall mean maps BUT 18z GEFS 5 day snowfall mean (1/16-1/21) is 2” in DC. That’s as good a signal we could expect 10-14 days out for a 5 day mean.
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@mdhokie - second day in a row a GFS run gave 3-4 feet for Deep Creek through 1/23.
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If GFS ran to 400 hours, Ji would have been happy with more blue over him.
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I thought WxUSAF hit on this earlier today in the model thread....weak west coast ridging so I think it means there's a lot of s/w flying all over. I'm a dummy with weather so who knows if this is right but perhaps that changes when we get better WC ridging later this month.
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Bullseye of 9" of snow on the LA/MS border.
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"I had a feeling things weren't going to trend well in the pattern change, but I was afraid to say it."
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Can you clarify what makes the upcoming pattern a bootleg NAO ridge vs a true H5 block?
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I was thinking something along similar lines but you articulate it way better - I like your idea of some kind of atmospheric/H5/pattern and a separate S/MR threat thread. When we had the December threat, this was getting a bit much in here between tracking H5 patterns and the actual threat IMO.
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@frd all of that is fine and interesting, but I’m over tracking wind changes and pattern changes, and ready to track a threat.
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I actually don’t think there’s a huge amount of change we’d need at H5 per PSU’s comments above. I liked 0z’s evolution upstairs way better than 18z FWIW.
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We just can’t have nice things.
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Yep. Will need a little bit of ns interaction to raise heights ahead of it/pull it north but i like seeing less shredding interference so far.
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GFS at 5H looks different (again) at H84.
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Yeah, sorry I deleted my post already. I realized I was looking at the GEFS. Oops!
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18z Euro gets some very light precip up to Stafford County. #flurrywatch
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Certainly hasn't been a torch even close in by any means. We'll score this month along/east of 95 I think.
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!!!!! NSFW. Looks like I need to spend the month of January working from Deep Creek...
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Mod+ snow DC/south...light snow north of DC at 126. HH is on.
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Incoming at 120.
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I thought GFS looked a bit like the Euro in that the vort gets sheared as it approaches. Still close enough for an OP at range IMO.
