nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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NS vort starting to phase in at 144.
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Para GFS is north of the regular GFS. Gets light precip just south of EZF but surface temps are borderline.
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GFS is weaker with the s/w + Quebec kicker so precip doesn’t get north of the NC/VA border. It’s basically rain for the SE except in the NC mountains.
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SW of the 18z GFS position
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Well its almost time to start extrapolating the NAM, so buckle up!
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18z EPS is a nice shift north for the RIC/southern part of the forum crew.
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That’s a pretty good shift especially for the southern part of the forum. I’m certainly not writing off this weekend’s threat.
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He’s now telling everyone “WAIT! I was kidding” but everyone is already gone and over to Ji’s house for a pity party
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@CAPE just yelled fire in the movie theater in the LR thread.
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That's essentially a carbon copy of our snowiest pattern. It would take an insane amount of bad luck (even for mid-atlantic standards) not to see a warning-level event in that pattern, as depicted.
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Copy cat.
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Basically upcoming pattern more conducive but beware the hype since good pattern doesn’t always equal snow and temps are marginal. A typical wet blanket CWG post lol.
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GEFS starts building heights in the PNA domain around D8/9 and by D10, we have this look.
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Para GFS has a 998 LP just off OBX and slides east from there for this week's threat.
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Yep, we don't need some kind of polar air mass to get snow in the heart of climo winter here....in fact of the PV was sitting over southern Canada, it'd probably be suppression or cold/dry. 09/10 wasn't a super cold winter but we timed things well with the blocking and ridging. If that mid-month EPS looks come to fruition, we'll be fine.
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I just don’t think they’re a good team but then again, I don’t track football anywhere as much as hockey so I could be way off.
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Based on the tweet NBZ posted, maybe I’ll be eating crow
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You can tell just bad OP GFS is right now. It cuts the 12th threat which is impossible with all the “red” (blocking) on top. Zero chance it cuts with that look at 500.
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Bucs will embarrass them.
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Will they even use their 2 timeouts?
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FWIW, the Quebec s/w is much further north on the 00z GFS through 96.
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It’s basically as worthless as the NAVGEM...
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3rd quarter is like @JakkelWx’s earlier post about the rest of winter. PUNT.
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here’s a screenshot from the model menu. I ditched Weathermodels because I couldn’t deal with the interface and the delay in data. Pleased with Weatherbell for the most part. I haven’t tried Pivotal Plus but the + to Pivotal Plus is likely the Euro soundings that WxBell doesn’t have.
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Really nice opening drive by Smith right now.
