nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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A slight drop in totals in S NJ/S PA and the 6” contour expanding southward in VA.
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Last four runs of the NBM. 6” line continuing to tick south towards EZF.
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that was a sick run (again) for us. Cold smoke.
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Something to pay attention to within 24 hours on the meso models is the potential for the dual banding to set up…one south and another north like many Mets here have talked about. GFS sort of shows this happening here.
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Pivotal has snow breaking out in DC at 3z Monday.
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30 or so hours from onset and EZF gets anywhere from a dusting to over a foot of snow. Wild.
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Crazy how solutions are still diverging. RGEM heads south. A really great run for EZF.
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I don’t think RGEM is budging from favoring CVA (near EZF) with the heaviest rates. ETA: Looks like its cutting totals to the north (M/D) and upping totals in the south (RIC).
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This system is definitely dynamic. Blizzard warnings added out in Kansas.
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It wouldn’t be a mid-atl storm if the northern peeps weren’t panicked.
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Very cool stuff!
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Giggidy, giggidy. Zoomed in to the DC area.
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UK and GFS comparison at H51 below. Our SW is a bit further south on the UK but look up north. UK has a closed low vs open wave on the GFS. I think that’s impacting it but I’m stoopid so what do I know.
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Now that we’re under 48 hours, the ‘north trend’ certainly hasn’t popped up so far.
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I thought I remember the UK actually scores well at 500 but it’s been a few years since I last looked. 30 minutes until the Euro.
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Y’all will like the UK.
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Can’t post the 10:1 map from Pivotal for some reason but approx. 10:1 amounts: M/D line: 1” Baltimore: 1-2” DC: 3-4” EZF: 6-7” RIC area: 12”+
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UK is going to be a big hit for Central VA, especially south of EZF. Over a foot for many places.
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Looks like you need to vacation at the Jersey shore instead.
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32” in 24 hours lol
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Yeah, DC was right on the northern edge of the good stuff on the GFS as the storm pulled away. That is going to be high ratio fluff and could easily drop a few inches.
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Not surprising, but very similar to the RGEM.
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Just talking about the immediate DC area, but aside from the NAM handling the WAA different than every other model (including the 3k), we are consistently in the 6-10” swath on every model, including the UK the most southern solution. It seems we’re pretty locked into a 4-8” event, with possible upside depending on mixing and backside as coastal gets going.
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Get this more expansive and it’d be a fun finale.
