nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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It's good news for DC/NOVA/MD when Ralph is talking more confluence.
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It's a great transfer location for DC. If more confluence means the Euro jackpot moves from SE PA to NOVA, then I am all for the confluence.
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Wentz just casually strolling by to say it was an epic run for Philly.
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I'll take another 50 mile shift south. Get some more CCB love in DC.
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Nice WAA thump
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Snow breaking out in DC by 4a Sunday.
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It seems that its been pretty much in alignment with the Euro even when the vort got into the 84H range yesterday. Hopefully thats a good sign.
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The OP got stuck on Hour 30 for surface maps on WxBell. At 500, there's better confluence over NE at Hour 90 but can't see the WAA unfortunately. EPS looks sweet above.
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Euro taking its sweet time on WxBell to get anything other than 5H maps to load.
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Looking at H5, confluence looks a bit better to me too. Surface maps are slower to load so haven’t seen the surface yet.
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So is suppression to the south still the main concern? Just checking....
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I guarantee you Loudoun county schools would be delayed with that weather statement if they were in person.
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8-10 on ukmet Seems like guidance is starting to converge on 4-6” from the WAA. Higher potential from the coastal but that’s where guidance diverges right now so who knows. Yes, I’d love a HECS but right now, that’s a low probability.
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I don’t mind Ji’s schtick until we have a legit event we’re tracking. Then it’s annoying AF.
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WHAT? This is breaking news to me. GFS took another step to the Euro IMO. GGEM took a bigger step and was close to a Euro-like solution....get the phase more south and you’d be happy (maybe). Also...can you take the ‘sent from my’ off your posts?
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GFS thermals are a joke. Even if its right on the track/transfer, the thermals are whack.
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Para GFS is about 4-6” from the WAA - dry slot - backside snow/snow showers of 2-4”.
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I’m still waiting for the (basically) unanimous 6” each member gave DC in the recent storm 4 days out.
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That’s what I’ve been looking at it too. NAM is much closer to Euro than GFS.
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84 hours from snow making it into DC and the GFS and Euro couldn’t be more different. It does seem like GFS took another step to the Euro (and as PSU pointed out, ICON would have been a Euro-like solution had the phase been cleaner). I loved the WAA on both 00z models tonight though.
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Through 72, the vort is stronger than prior runs which has been a big difference from the Euro. GFS weakens the vort as it heads east whereas Euro holds/strengthens.
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So little data available with this model but it looks like 0.5”+ snow for DC from the WAA. Similar for Winchester. Seems like places south of Baltimore miss out on the coastal action just by looking at the total precip maps. It’s such a wonky evolution. I like the WAA a lot.
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It’s not a coastal rider. The SLP panels are on WxBell already and it forms near OBX then heads NE about 100 miles off ORF then heads NW from there and makes “landfall” at ACY.
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I think PSU is about to spend the next hour making a point about tucked solutions and beating a dead horse.
