nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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I like seeing the return of “Snow, heavy at times” back in the point and click.
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I’m not just saying this because it shows less snow but I just don’t think its that great of a model. I’m sure someone who is smarter/follows its performance more closely can comment, but I never get the “Euro will follow the UK” since it seems that rarely happens.
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Yeah, I’m personally rooting for higher QPF further west so that LP looks good to me.
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UKIE at 72
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People should take both the positive snow depth maps and the 10:1 snow maps with a grain of salt — in marginal situations, 10:1 as gospel is setting yourself up for disappointment but sometimes the positive snow depth maps are underdone especially for things you cited above or UHI issues, etc. It’d be better to look at the QPF and soundings vs a computer generated snowmap.
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Yeah the closest 925 gets is just SE of Andrews early Wednesday afternoon but as you said 950 and below is the ‘issue’. I’d think rates would overcome but if its light precip, there’d be a lot of drip drip drip. I do think once things ‘get going’, even DC crashes.
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It doubled QPF at Deep Creek from 18z. Barely 0.4” at 18z to just about 0.9” at 00z. Love seeing that.
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Wow, Bills are rolling
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It’s pretty bad with thermals.
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I’d start looking at the NAM 24-36 hours out, with any type of seriousness. I mean, I don’t hate the depiction but its hot garbage right now.
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It’s a great bookmark during events. Good luck tomorrow, hope its a nice overperformer as you’re staring down a bigger one Wednesday.
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Use this: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17 Tabs at the top can be used to check 850 temps, analysis, etc (and other layers).
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Getting to the point where the OPs should be given more weight.
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35 at Deep Creek. Unfortunately 50 here.
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You/Winchester/Smithburg/Hagerstown/Westminster are going to bullseye I think. Depending on where the banding sets up, I could see a chance for very localized reports of 2 feet.
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Niiiiiice, 5-10”...wouldn’t mind a bump up on QPF for Deep Creek on the Euro but I’ll roll the dice with ratios.
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Hey, maybe this will be the time it scores a coup.
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It’s really out of its wheelhouse but I’ll clutch the 18z NAM until something better comes along. Beat down 81 corridor and mountains.
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I’m thinking 2 feet by Friday for Snowshoe.
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That’s the best the UK has looked for Deep Creek so I’m hugging that for now.
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Are we sure this is a Nina?
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I hope you are able to find some peace right now during this tremendous loss. I can’t imagine the pain and loss but I will keep your family in my prayers, especially this holiday season.
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Windows open...beautiful spring day!
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I also liked seeing GFS bump up QPF totals for the mountains and starting to clue in some upslope as the coastal pulls away.
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The CCM/deform band depicted on the GFS is serious bidness at hr 90 - runs straight the majority of the forum. Even with cities mixing/flipping to rain, with that deform band depicted, it should make everyone happy.
