nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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Here is LWX's latest thinking on start time...wouldn't be surprised if actual start time is on the earlier end of these. WAA generally come in quicker than forecast.
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For goodness sakes...are we all adults or 8 year olds? Whatever happened to showing respect...
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That's a great sounding....even if you flirt with/mix with sleet for a bit, check out those omegas.
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Our place is less than 5 minutes from them in McHenry....they’ve got a solid beer selection on tap.
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You got the right idea! Glad you’re heading out....cheers to a good storm there.
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3k is almost identical to the Euro out here. 1.6” QPF, all snow - Kuchera with 20-22”. Some models have the banding extending down from PA into western MD...hope that happens.
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HRRR (still out of its wheelhouse) gets DPs across the 81 corridor into the low/mid 20s. We’ll see how that trends as we get closer to game time. I’m pretty excited about the Euro for the western areas...it’s been the best look so far out here. Almost 1.6” QPF, all snow. Hope it holds for us.
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Currently 25/19 in McHenry....leaving Arlington at 5a tomorrow to get out there for the storm.
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It looks like the low tracks west of the Bay through the Northern Neck to just east of Baltimore over the Bay. by tomorrow, it’ll be over Fairfax.
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Great picture @Potvinsux — looks like the North Pole.
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I don’t hate the upslope snow showers continuing through Friday for Garrett County on the GFS.
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I would put more weight at this point on the mesoscale models in terms of thermals, etc...great to see GFS take a step forward but that’s the only caution I’d throw out there.
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How do you think his Facebook cult will respond to a new forecast of a flood watch for Leesburg?
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I remember the hand me down snow pants from my older brother that I’d use in those setups. They would weigh 75 pounds by the time I got inside from all the water it absorbed.
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By game time, it’ll actually track over Winchester at this point.
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I should clarify and say by ice threat, I’m talking a serious ice storm that some models spit out in their maps...glazing on a grill or metal railing, sure. But the mythical ice storm, no.
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Although 850s were screaming from the east, as you said 925/surface was better than expected which if you’re looking to avoid just plain rain, thats a better than expected run. And agree on the ice threat...I just don’t see it.
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You’ll mix down there for a bit I think. As of now I’m all snow but wouldn’t be surprised to see some sleet mixing in depending on trends.
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Phin will soon be showing a live feed of his place in Randolph getting 18” of snow while its raining across this area.
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Speaking of crazy uncle Larry....
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I know we give NAM a lot of crap around here (poor thing) but it was the first to latch onto the inland track. We all laughed at it..”aw how cute look at the crazy old uncle 84H NAM doing NAM-like things...”. Even uncle Larry can be right once in a while.
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Yeah, should be good skiing conditions on Thursday/Friday with some fresh powder, I’m excited. Though I’d rather a solution that had the low just offshore to get more of the forum in on the action even if brought down totals here. It feels like we’ve been tracking this for 3 weeks....
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6z Euro tracks the low over Williamsburg - Lower Ches Bay - Up the Bay to near CAPE (too bad it’s not a Cat 4 everyone here craves) - then heads NE from there. Furthest west (on the 3 hour panels), the 850 line gets is Leesburg.
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I’d lean mesoscale models for thermals at this point. I hope Canadian is right for the cities/close in burbs but I wouldn’t put my stock, if any, in the temp depictions. Someone smarter than me can weigh in though...
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Thanks. Whoever that Ravens player who keeps dropping passes should be canned.
