nj2va

Yeah, upslope will be cranking (and likely will linger past Christmas depending on the setup).....it certainly bears watching the next few days but recent guidance has been hinting at snow showers across the area on Christmas Day which would certainly make for a festive mood. I’ll be in NJ for Christmas (back in Deep Creek the day after) but I’m hoping this area sees some snow squalls.

Happy first day of winter! Days start to get longer (sun angle!!!!)

GFS slower with the front. Not as happy as the HH run but verbatim would be some flakes, better for favored areas.

We need a top 10 posts of the year thread this time of year like the good ol’ letterman countdowns... that post would be up there

GFS with some light snow showers Christmas morning in the area as you’re opening presents or going to mass.

It’s because an OP model at 200 hours out isn’t painting 18-36” across the area so this supposed blocking pattern is going down in flames even before the pattern sets in. People need their digital snow fix it seems.

This Seahawks/WFT game is a snooze

I haven’t seen the surface maps but 12z Euro has a monster closed 500 low off ACY for 12/30. ETA: Great Lakes low jumps off the coast of DE and strengthens as it heads to the cape. Slams interior upstate NY. Block exerting its influence on the GL low.

For those wondering the differences between a west or east based block, the link below is a great read: https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/nao

Digging out cars on the street or a townhome parking lot really sucks. Although the only “fun” part is when everyone is doing it together and it turns into a bit of a neighborhood block party. I remember in the Jan 2016 blizzard one of our neighbors took his grill out front and grilled burgers and hot dogs, and others brought out beer/drinks...it was fun. That said, a garage still beats that. We’re probably going to move in the spring/summer timeframe from our townhouse and up there on the list is a garage. You did the smart thing!

30 with snow. 0.5” new snow so far.

yup, I remember that. That was the first year I got into tracking. It was so easy! And I remember people even posted the SREFs back then. Oh how times have changed lol garrett county got over 100” of snow just in February 2010. I wish we had our house here back then...I can’t even imagine that much

12/19/09 definitely a top storm for me. Cold powder for 95 is hard to get, especially in December.

Wow CAPE throwing out 09-10 references like it’s candy. I’m in

That’s Star Trek right?

6z GFS is incredibly active, looping the surface through the run. Lots of chances (for the panic room).

Low of 19 and picked up another 0.2” overnight.

It certainly looks like a fun, dynamic system. But yeah, I was more referring to the ‘ZOMG GFS snow maps gives me 5” on Christmas Eve!!!!” - if things go as depicted by the GFS, we’d see some snow for sure but in these setups, I’m always skeptical of the snow maps. As i pointed out earlier today, this year is way more interesting than last winter by far.

I’d take those snow maps with a large grain of salt. Even if it happened as depicted on the GFS, it won’t accumulate just like the maps show...cut those back a bit.

Way more interesting events to track than last year. We were staring at one awful look after another this time last year.

I’ve hovered between 23-24 since midnight. Picked up another fresh coating since morning from very light snow...upslope machine just doesn’t want to end. It’s also foggy AF.

Say wut?

There’s some robust NS energy on the GFS next Tuesday swinging down that would be another 4-6”+ for the mountains/ski resorts. Great timing for business as they head into the holiday period.

Seems like you need to trim your eyebrow and nose hairs....

@frd - curious how that will impact things if it happens as depicted for the rest of winter coupled with DTs recent post about ensemble guidance moderating Nina in the middle/end of the winter. I’m not a LR guy at all and I haven’t finished my coffee so I’m probably barely sounding intelligent (as usual!).