nj2va

The cities will score a snow event with that type of blocking....IMO, its just a matter of when. Might not be a 36” HECS but I have a hard time believing the upcoming blocking won’t produce at least a moderate event here. But I’m sure pivotpivot will point out something about the PAC that will f us over.

Mountains have a flash flood watch tomorrow and winter storm watch tomorrow night/Friday. There was at least 6-7” snowpack when I left on Monday + 5-6” fresh snow this week...could definitely lead to flooding problems tomorrow with all that rain/rapid snow melt.

Between the blocking and the post-Christmas GL cutter acting as a wall off the east coast, the New Years storm is stuck over the Midwest with nowhere to go it seems. ETA: on the 00z GFS. Eventually cuts to the UP of Michigan.

NAM wants nothing to do with snow outside the mountains on Christmas Eve/day.

@BristowWx bullseye....its gotta be wrong

P&C for a random town in western MN for tomorrow/night. -34 wind chill...brrrrr Wednesday Snow, mainly before 2pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow, mainly after 9am. Temperature falling to around 0 by 5pm. Wind chill values as low as -28. Windy, with a north northwest wind 32 to 38 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Wednesday Night Widespread blowing snow, mainly before 10pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around -9. Wind chill values as low as -34. Windy, with a north northwest wind 31 to 36 mph decreasing to 21 to 26 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph.

Yeah, mountains always adds some difficult forecasting conditions but just comparing Pitt to LWX, I can already see a difference with LWX even reading their forecast discussions for the mountain zone. Beyond the challenges of forecasting in mountains, I just find LWX a much higher quality than Pitt.

I’d be curious Jon’s thoughts for Canaan but until last month, NWS Pitt covered Garrett County and I always felt they were a few steps behind.

Pops a low along the gulf coast at H222 while the primary is over Chicago. By then the primary has wrecked the thermals so it doesn’t really matter what it does from there. Let’s see what the EPS says.

Euro might be cooking something up...low in OK on the 30th. The post-Christmas GL cutter acting as a bit of a 50/50. Let’s see what it does.

new thread since LR takes us into January? I’d ask C.A.P.E. to start it but he’s gone.

GFS with the classic Ontario to well off the Delmarva coast low transfer to recurve inland into Phin’s backyard. I don’t think Ji will like it...

I’ll be at my parents house in Ocean County, NJ Christmas Eve/Day...SREFs give them 5”...hugging!

Amazing that a clipper produced that, very cool. How much did Canaan get?

It’s going to be some wild weather on Thursday into Friday in the mountains from Snowshoe up through Canaan and Wisp. Will likely need wind chill advisories in addition to WSW.

Ji should be around any second that 00z looks even more disastrous than 18z overall. ETA: In seriousness, didn’t look at the run but based on that verbatim map, wouldn’t take much adjustment for a more favorable outcome. Push that High further west where its more of a hat on top of the low..would help shove the low east vs north. At least I think.

Seems like you created a jolt for your team.

JuJu too busy coming up with dumb dance moves instead of watching tapes/reading plays.

Steelers are in trouble...

That looks heavier than it was during last Wednesday’s event honestly. From a clipper no less!

Unreal! Looks like something out of a postcard. Snow also looks fluffy AF. Hope you’re doing well and enjoyed the trip.

I figured LWX would upgrade the WWA for Wisp to a WSW...these clippers generally overperform in the mountains with the upslope enhancement and this vort is pretty vigorous. Upslope will be cranking like you pointed out later this week. Great timing for the ski resorts.

32 in McHenry and snow is coming down good on the Ring Cameras. Fresh coating on the driveway. unfortunately I’m back in Arlington.

On PTO until 1/4!!

Some may be wondering why the snowfall mean is pretty standard climo given AO/NAO domain and IMO, this may be the reason...so many s/ws so models may be having a hard time keying in on which one may be the biggest threat. Given the shtty looks we endured all winter last year, its nice to see NAM help which looks to have serious staying power. The potential is there and thats all we can ask for at this point.