nj2va

LWX picking up on the freezing rain threat in their latest disco: @losetoa6 Latest 12z guidance, particularly the NAM and EURO, suggests that there may be enough cold/dry air advection behind the cold front for areas of freezing rain to develop overnight Thursday through mid-morning on Friday. The best chance for freezing rain will be across western and central Maryland, parts of eastern West Virginia and into the northern portions of the Shenandoah Valley. A few sleet pellets are possible across these areas as well. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A frontal boundary will linger over the area Friday as a low pressure system tracks northeastward through the Midwest. An interesting synoptic set-up with high pressure over Bermuda and weak high pressure over New England. This poses a steep temperature gradient at the onset of precip which occurs Thursday night. While much of the southern half of the region is likely to remain above freezing, NAM, EURO and EURO ensemble members indicate freezing rain, primarily along the MD/PA border, down through the Shenandoah Valley and the Allegheny Front. At this time, it seems possible that freezing rain does indeed develop for those areas.

EPS with a bit of a signal for a coastal on the 11th. Long ways out but it’s been showing up for a few runs.

Impressive run over run 2m temperature change.

Euro tracks the Sunday low from Raleigh to Williamsburg to Ocean City. Rain for the mountains even.

Are you sure you’re not moving to Logan Circle, DC?

At least you can laugh at us poor suckers sitting on the bay bridge in stand still traffic on a Friday afternoon in July while you’re sipping a cocktail sitting on the beach.

We’ll know in about 3 months how winter plays out is my call.

Got a few runs in at Wisp this morning. Nice, cold wintry day.

6z precip total (doesn’t include the Sunday potential). It continues to suggest the rain will flip to snow here on NYE, something that I haven’t seen on another model. I’m not concerned by the freezing rain as depicted since we’ll eventually warm up even out here and the antecedent air mass isn’t super cold (aside from today where we’ll stay in the low 20s).

Currently 20 degrees (low for the day). Picked up a fresh coating of snow overnight.

Down to 28.

Yes, we’re getting into the heart of climo so marginal/slightly below can work. We don’t need 2,234,423 things to line up in our favor in January (just 2,234,422 ). Sometimes I think people obsess over the temp anomaly maps...give me a good H5 setup and I’ll let the chips fall.

Already over two thirds of last season’s total in McHenry (~40-42” this year when we had 60” last winter) - it’s been a good winter here so far especially considering 99% of that fell in December. At home, I’m not sure I hit 1” last winter...I’m already halfway there this season.

Nice comparison, thanks for posting. Euro went colder and took a step towards the CMC albeit not as aggressive like you said. It’s interesting how this system keeps evolving from what it looked like a day or two ago. LWX mentioned that in their disco earlier this morning - continuing evolving guidance gives them low confidence in their forecast right now.

I was being sarcastic.

Meh, but the pacific isn’t perfect so we’ll probably waste it. We need a perfect look!!!!!!!

Are you sure that’s the Euro Hi Res? The image says ‘GFS’ next to the model.

12z Euro by precip type...yesterday’s 12z had 100% rain as the precip type for everyone.

It actually even turns here over to snow Thursday morning (“Wave 1”) and has a legit freezing rain event on NYD for “Wave 2”. Trending way more interesting for the far NW/mountain areas.

I hope the Cowboys sneak in from the NFC East. Don’t @ me.

Currently 41 and snowpack is taking a beating today - temp rose 10 degrees overnight in a span of 2 hours. Hoping to pick up an inch tonight as temps drop this afternoon.

Thanks for showing this comparison. Weaker low + stronger high showing up in more frozen precip here. If that stupid Bermuda High could move further east or weaken, this could be a legit event for some.

CMC keeps me frozen for the duration of the storm (sleet to start then freezing rain). Too bad CMC is a terrible model. I do think it bears watching for the far N&W areas for some frozen to start before flipping to rain.

Fix the rabbit ears..that’ll clear it up.

Steelers just dominating this half.