nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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24 for the low. Currently 25/23 and -FRZA just started.
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Since I’ll likely be incoherent in a few hours, a happy early new year to my fellow weenies here. A happy, healthy, and snowy new year to all of you.
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EPS has been signaling the 11/12th for a few days now....definitely a time to watch. Fun sht coming up.
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I’ve had light snow on/off all day here and temp currently at 28...great hike through the woods, sledding (with beers), and hanging out by the fire pit with friends visiting for NYE. A perfect winter day to close out 2020. Cheers y’all.
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Just measured 0.5”...a nice birthday treat to have fresh snow . Are you staying through the storm tomorrow? Should get between 0.2”-0.3” of ice.
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Inside the Beltway is the new place to be
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Dropped from 42 at 4a to 32 at 7a. Currently 31 and the rain has changed to snow (with a few sleet pellets mixed in). Picked up a fresh coating already.
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up to 46 with some drizzle. Snow pack has turned into a 3-4” glacier over the last few days so it’s holding up strong.
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Guidance gets far western areas into the low 20s early Friday. Shaping up to be a legit event as it doesn’t look to get above freezing until late Friday night.
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A bit slower on 12z vs 6z for onset...now after 19z east of HGR on the Euro.
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12z Euro only 7 degrees off (high) its 1p depiction of temps here - also leaves enough precip after the front pushes through for 2” of snow tomorrow morning.
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I’ve learned if I put together forcing, stratospheric, coupling, troposphere, and ENSO together in a sentence, people immediately think I have a PhD.
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@losetoa6 Perhaps a preview for Friday? Low level cold taking longer to scour out here. Currently 31 and guidance had me in the mid to upper 30s by now. I am sure we’ll get into the upper 40s tonight before the front drops through the area overnight but models tend to want to rush the 2m warming in these setups.
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Ji: I can see the back edge on radar already
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Agree, especially for the coastal plain - but the looks are suggesting we couple some ridging with the west-based -NAO (see the EPS I posted at the end of the last page). ETA - CAPE explained it way better than me above.
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The “blocking” right now is just an extension of the WAR and really isn’t legit blocking. Get a west based -NAO like every ensemble is showing ~10-12ish days from now and I just can’t see storms cutting into that block. Just my .02.
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NOS NOW? Sounds ominous.
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That looks like something my 4 year old nephew drew for me....can you explain that?
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Stay vigilant.
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Woof. Also, EPS still with a signal for a coastal low on the 11/12 on the MSLP anomaly maps.
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Ugh, I’m so sorry to see this. It’s so hard to lose a family dog, even more so around the holidays (and when you aren’t there to see him again). My best to you and try to cherish all the good memories. We lost one of our dogs earlier this year...time heals but we still miss him.
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I’ll take my chances with the mid-January ensemble 500 maps - that type of west-based -NAO coupled with a less hostile Pacific should provide the ingredients we need for snow in our area. Granted I’m by no means knowledgeable compared to most here but I find it hard to believe as/if the pattern evolves in January with that block and (hopefully) a better Pacific, we wouldn’t score a storm. If the Pacific continues to be hostile, I’d be less bullish near the cities.
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No way we get out of January without a region-wide MECS. Then a HECS in February as the block relaxes. Mark yo calendars.
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GFS coming in a tick colder again for NYE/NYD system. Ninja’d!
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45 here
