nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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One monster in there, too. Weenie in me says its that one which turns out correct.
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I was just about to post the same. I’d imagine the ensembles will have some good solutions mixed in with a 500 look like that.
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#patternchange!
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I love an overrunning event....all you see is a huge blob of precip to our SW heading our way and there’s 0 worry about temps/precip types/lack of precip. Something tells me we’ll be (or at least the crazy ones like me) doing many 1a Euro PBPs later this month.
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6z GFS has two snowstorms between the 15th and 20th. Yes, it’s an OP run at looooooong range but it coincides with the more favorable H5 looks we’ve been tracking for weeks. I’d expect to start to see threats pop up on the ensembles in that period beginning mid-month and beyond.
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It was a messy, convoluted partial phase. But check out 500 and all the vorts. GFS isn’t going to get this right 150 hours out (or even 15). I’m not mad at where we stand at this point.
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NS vort starting to phase in at 144.
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Para GFS is north of the regular GFS. Gets light precip just south of EZF but surface temps are borderline.
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GFS is weaker with the s/w + Quebec kicker so precip doesn’t get north of the NC/VA border. It’s basically rain for the SE except in the NC mountains.
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SW of the 18z GFS position
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Well its almost time to start extrapolating the NAM, so buckle up!
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18z EPS is a nice shift north for the RIC/southern part of the forum crew.
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That’s a pretty good shift especially for the southern part of the forum. I’m certainly not writing off this weekend’s threat.
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He’s now telling everyone “WAIT! I was kidding” but everyone is already gone and over to Ji’s house for a pity party
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@CAPE just yelled fire in the movie theater in the LR thread.
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That's essentially a carbon copy of our snowiest pattern. It would take an insane amount of bad luck (even for mid-atlantic standards) not to see a warning-level event in that pattern, as depicted.
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Copy cat.
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Basically upcoming pattern more conducive but beware the hype since good pattern doesn’t always equal snow and temps are marginal. A typical wet blanket CWG post lol.
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GEFS starts building heights in the PNA domain around D8/9 and by D10, we have this look.
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Para GFS has a 998 LP just off OBX and slides east from there for this week's threat.
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Yep, we don't need some kind of polar air mass to get snow in the heart of climo winter here....in fact of the PV was sitting over southern Canada, it'd probably be suppression or cold/dry. 09/10 wasn't a super cold winter but we timed things well with the blocking and ridging. If that mid-month EPS looks come to fruition, we'll be fine.
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I just don’t think they’re a good team but then again, I don’t track football anywhere as much as hockey so I could be way off.
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Based on the tweet NBZ posted, maybe I’ll be eating crow
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You can tell just bad OP GFS is right now. It cuts the 12th threat which is impossible with all the “red” (blocking) on top. Zero chance it cuts with that look at 500.
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Bucs will embarrass them.
