I actually don’t think there’s a huge amount of change we’d need at H5 per PSU’s comments above. I liked 0z’s evolution upstairs way better than 18z FWIW.
Yeah I posted in the LR thread (makes more sense for this in here) that 500 closed off vs prior GFS runs. I thought based on the 48H panel, we'd see some flurries get to DC. Not out of the game for a car topper!
I thought GFS was going to get flurries into DC based on H48 but then just shredded apart by the northern vort. Definitely came "norther" though.
ETA: 500 also closes off this run too.
Verbatim GFS is more interested in NS vorts diving down as clippers next week...if one is robust enough to get moisture past the mountains, it could be a discrete threat that pops up in the short/medium range.
Was it last week when there were 4 straight pages of posts complaining there’s no cold around with these stormy looks? Lol
I’m with PSU in that our window will come when the blocking relaxes...15th-20th.
Haven’t dug into the individual members but certainly a signal on this panel for a coastal. Get that MSLP deeper and more west but since this is 7 days out, this is a good signal.
and this one