nj2va
-
Posts
13,695 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by nj2va
-
Through 72, the vort is stronger than prior runs which has been a big difference from the Euro. GFS weakens the vort as it heads east whereas Euro holds/strengthens.
-
So little data available with this model but it looks like 0.5”+ snow for DC from the WAA. Similar for Winchester. Seems like places south of Baltimore miss out on the coastal action just by looking at the total precip maps. It’s such a wonky evolution. I like the WAA a lot.
-
It’s not a coastal rider. The SLP panels are on WxBell already and it forms near OBX then heads NE about 100 miles off ORF then heads NW from there and makes “landfall” at ACY.
-
I think PSU is about to spend the next hour making a point about tucked solutions and beating a dead horse.
-
Hypo has to be a troll.
-
In addition to the surface....looking at 500, NAM at 84 looks very close to the Euro at 90. It’s definitely not anything like the GFS.
-
In 96 hours, he’ll be under a WSW for 18-24”.
-
PSU will ignite a mass panic with that post in about 5 minutes.
-
There is no reputable model that is a total whiff or mostly rain. Even the “disaster” GFS is 3-6” WAA/dry slot or rain to snow showers on the back-end. Yes, this is not locked in by any means to a solution but its hard to argue against the consistency of the EPS.
-
You’re notoriously bad at picking the jackpot between CHO and Arlington. Don’t mess it up for us.
-
You aren’t kidding.
-
I do the same at Deep Creek....when I was there for MLK weekend, at one point I just laid down and looked up at the sky as the snow fell on me. I probably have a problem. Lol
-
It’s basically a perfect run IMO. QPF:
-
Me likey....hints of the CCB on an ensemble mean. LFG.
-
EPS not out yet. Should be in like 10-20 minutes.
-
What will Ji do when tomorrow’s 0.5” is more than he gets on Monday?
-
18z and 12z look very similar albeit both the SLP and 500 low are a touch north of 12z. EPS will go out to 144 so will capture the important parts.
-
18z Euro gets the 0.5" line just north of DC for tomorrow's 'storm'.
-
The para almost takes the low to Chicago before it hits a brick wall and heads to OH. Basically transfers at our latitude. 4-6" from the thump, dry slot, then 1-3" from snow showers on Monday from the ULL
-
Euro/GFS are worlds apart at 500. GFS is a strung out wave as it heads east vs the Euro with a MUCH stronger 500 low. I'd rather the Euro on our side.
-
ICON has snow breaking out across the SW part of the forum ~1a and DC by about 4a Sunday. Transfer is down over/near OBX but primary hangs on longer than I want. I don't really know how good ICON thermals are but verbatim it's all snow in DC through Sunday night (~0.5" QPF has already fallen). The coastal basically zig zags a bit as it heads north from OBX to Lewes. I like seeing the south transfer on the ICON.
-
DC now in the “Heavy Snow” weather hazard
-
To my weenie eyes, one of the key differences is the strength of the vort as it crosses the country. Euro holds/strengthens as it nears our area which combined with a coastal transfer near OBX + backside energy to capture/slow it down. GFS is initially closed off over the Midwest but then just opens/shears as it heads east. GFS then transfers too far north/pops a coastal low at/north our latitude and the backside UL low swings through and closes off with the SLP too far offshore/north of our latitude.
-
Yeah, under Surface --> Precipitation -> 6-hour QPF Members (1-25 then 26-50)
