nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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Wrong thread @IronTy
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33% chance of 0” 33% chance of 1-3” 33% chance of 3-6”
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**Until the next storm that the GFS shows a foot of snow and this place lights up like a Christmas tree
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Cannot. Compute.
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Need that Bob Chill huge “oh my” emoji
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Meh. I could care less. It’s been an atrocious pattern so far…an inch of slush/sleet/etc is fine by me. Few put faith in this actually happening so whatever (if anything) falls, I’m fine with.
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Cut back off the north but bumped the 6”+ closer to DC.
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RGEM is a solid hit for the area. Pivotal precip maps shows sleet/mixing into DC (and south of there) but the column (per the sounding) is below freezing. 4” into DC, 1” into Baltimore on the Kuchera map.
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We just came off a December that had one of the worst weather patterns we could ask for with the insane SER. Anything that falls Monday will be good IMO.
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3k Kuchera. Lol at the jump north vs 18z. 6” line up to the southern part of the Beltway.
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3k also with the big jump NW like the 12k Snow line up to DC
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The <1” line was barely on the map last time. And always best for us when LWX is playing catch up vs adjusting downwards.
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Yep, allows the SS vort to amplify enough for us. It’s not a surprise looking at the 500 trend on the Euro that its slowly been correcting n/nw with the surface/precip.
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It’s hard to tell if his main issue is just the raw snowfall output or the actual evolution at 500/surface that the GFS is showing. He makes it seem (in the last image), that his main issue is verbatim trusting the 10:1 snowfall maps in this setup vs precip getting into the cities. ETA: Anyone trusting the 10:1 maps in this is fraught for disappointment IMO.
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I don’t know how to post the animation here but looping the last 6 runs of the Euro at 500 shows a definite adjustment on the Euro in slowing down the SS vort and actually closes it off at 500.
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Another bump like that at 0z and DC is in the 4-5” range.
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Also notice the 500 low is closed at hour 33 and 36 vs 12z. Always like to see that. Hopefully translates to a better surface depiction.
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I don’t hate this look on the GEFS for the threat on the 7th.
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50 degrees and absolutely pouring. Over 1.2” on the day.
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Lol, evil. When is that from again?
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Verbatim on the snow maps, 0.1” line gets to DC. Good enough to see some flakes flying. Another bump north certainly possible. Let’s see what it shows for the end of week threat too.
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We nailed it Mattie.
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Torrential rain. I can understand why Wisp closed until colder weather returns.
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Happy New Year y’all! 53 and moderate rain.
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I’ll take my chances with that vs the absolute garbage PAC we have now even with a favorable Atlantic.
