nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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46 and moderate rain in Ocean County, NJ. Beautiful!
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I was about to say, while I don’t have individual members, the TT 6z GEFS maps don’t seem supportive of the OP. Most certainly a LP emerging from the SE but the mean HP is over the plains.
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Merry Christmas! Hope everyone has a blessed day.
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WWA posted for the overnight hours for Allegany/Washington/Frederick for freezing rain/sleet.
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Oh man, have a great time with the family out there! Pictures look awesome
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Nice! What are you drinking?
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I don’t have a paid model subscription (no point given the lack of chances right now) but the 12z GEFS on TT made me a bit interested in New Year’s weekend for the mountains. SER becomes muted just enough which allows 850s to be BN, 2m normal, and decent 24H precip for this far out.
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Nice weather today to get a few last minute gifts and stock up at Total Wine. Their new location at Potomac Yards in Alexandria is really nice.
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Wow, he went all in on the prediction.
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Seems like we want to keep the heights down so the system doesn’t wind up tracking over Buffalo. 500 heights at 6z shifted north vs 0z which translated to less frozen in the area. Even if its a long shot, at least something to keep an eye on vs pattern changes.
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Re: the vortex near Japan….6z GEFS starts to change that look ~New Years Day. Hopefully not a head fake and we start to see a breakdown to this relentless pacific shit show.
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Is this area circled in green where we need some help? As the run evolves, higher heights replace the vortex and (I think) it helps weaken the strength of the western trough / pushes it east enough to dampen the SER. It looks like this vortex is helping to reinforce the current Pacific look (?).
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I’m confused - where’s the ridge on this map?
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Selfishly, I’d love a NS/clipper pattern for a few weeks. Mountains would cash in MD/WV and it’d help turn around what’s been a dreadful start to the season for the ski resorts. I think it was 2 or 3 winters ago where a little clipper dropped 12” in McHenry…ratios were like 30:1 or something like that (or honestly even more).
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The Winter Storm Warning for the CA mountains runs from tonight through Sunday night, wow. Up to 10 feet of snow locally.
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The crayola MJO chart is a bridge too far for me
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I feel like the look in early January (from yesterday/two days ago) would work for us…high heights in the AO/NAO and the pacific ridge shifted east just enough to mute the SE ridge. If we can just get a bit of help from the Pacific with the current look in the Atlantic we’d be in the game. and overall I’d rather a favorable Pacific IMO.
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This is one of the reasons we bought the house at Deep Creek. 110” average although they are off to an atrocious start to winter with (probably) less than 10” so far. it’s important living here to travel to get the snow fix. otherwise it’s just staring at the GEFS waiting for the pacific to stop sucking. glad you had a good time!
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I’ll take a +PNA over a -NAO.
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Time to start Winter 2022-2023 thread?
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Also, I feel like it's been 3 years of AN precipitation so I'm not worried about some kind of sustained drought. I feel like we revisit this thread every few months and then laugh when have a 200% rainfall month "out of the blue" and this thread goes back to page 5.
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Yep, for sure. And to your earlier point, with the majority of talk this AM about can kicking, I’d take a gamble with that look any day over the pattern we are dealing with now.
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27 and frosty. Merry early Christmas!
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Something tells me that in that setup, we aren’t talking about tracking something from 10 days out. If we can stay on the right side of the boundary, it’s more likely we’d have legit threat show up within 5 days IMO.
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Have a great time!
