nj2va
-
Posts
14,774 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by nj2va
-
Yep, when you see the final accumulation maps showing 10”-12”+, there’ll be some folks out here screaming bust when there’s mixing tomorrow night/poor snow growth and 1-3” on the ground. It’s sort of a two-parter - WAA where we’ll deal with lower ratios and mixing with sleet and then pure fluff Monday into Tuesday AM where we stack up. Y’all are going to clean up with the the upslope down there. I’ll do well up here but this setup will crush Davis.
-
Similar flip time on the Euro for DC but slightly less QPF so totals are lower. It also has the Monday AM light snow pulling through mainly N MD. It’s looking increasingly likely out here in McHenry that the bulk of the snow will come from upslope. Euro has a “warm” layer at 700 poking into western MD (-1 which is warm for that level) which will likely mean less than 10:1 ratios. Ratios greatly improve as the low gets N of our latitude.
-
Kind of amazing how much weight is being given to the NAM in here. It seems overdone but shrug — at least we only have 36 more hours to find out
-
I passed it on the way here and put out a “BUY ME NOW” sign
-
It really hasn’t wavered for days. I’d trust Euro and (starting tomorrow) 3k NAM with thermals. Or just blend the wettest + coldest models for the weenie way.
-
Through end of the run (captures the upslope).
-
DC flips just before 7 looking at the soundings….and ~0.3” QPF falls by then.
-
Nice man, enjoy the storm. I’m starting to think the mountains will get more snow Monday AM into Tuesday AM from upslope than the WAA portion. That strong of a LP with the NW winds will really crank the upslope. Regardless should be a fun Sunday and Monday. Glad you got there safely.
-
Just got here. 25 and SN-…it was graupel in Cumberland when we stopped at Chik Fil A and Sheetz and basically SN- from the county line to here.
-
We’re in the car heading out to McHenry. The language from the updated WSW is full on pants tent mojo: ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are most likely, with up to 18 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph, creating blizzard conditions at times.
-
Start the thread!!!!
-
You can't go wrong with any along the spine of the Apps from WV up to Garrett County, from Snowshoe up to Timberline/Canaan and north to Wisp. Upslope totals will be higher in Snowshoe and Canaan due to their higher elevation. Totals during the WAA portion may be lower in Snowshoe due to mixing in these setups (see above) but honestly, all of these areas will do well. I don't know much about VA/PA ski resorts.
-
Yeah, agree with that on the mixing in this setup...hopefully the dry slot stays to the west over central WV or NW of there. But upslope looks to be good so I think you'll make up for it there IMO.
-
NAM keeps that dry slot over WV (and out of western MD). I wouldn't be surprised if I mix in McHenry for a short period of time with the 850 winds blasting from the east before the winds shift back out of the NW at 850.
-
Yeah, this isn't a virga setup at all. The WAA and those winds screaming from the SE at the 850 level will come in like a wall to get rid of any dry air in the column.
-
Check out that +PNA continuing to get reinforced on that map. May be able to time more of a pseudo -NAO with those higher heights rolling through GL too.
-
LWX disco mentions the wind 'threat' too with gusts approaching 50 mph as a possibility. I'd bet that map is a bit overdone but it should be pretty gusty Sunday night.
-
Maybe a bit more after this with upslope continuing.
-
He should just put a 6-11” zone in between. Would make more sense.
-
GGEM has single digits N&W of 95 Sunday morning, low teens for the cities. Even if overdone, that’s some impressive cold (yes, realize this setup will scour out the mid levels quickly yadda yadda).
-
I’m not following the purple through SEVA on that. It’ll start Monday 1a there but Sunday 1p in NOVA.
-
I’ve lived in the area since 2008 and I’m having a hard time remembering a track like this. Not saying that it can’t happen verbatim but to your point, its unusual. It’s kind of remarkable how consistent the major global OPs have been for the last two or so days. Lots of moving parts with this so it could change but we’re now within 72 hours of first flakes so time’s ticking.
-
That’s a really fun couple of hours on the GFS on the front end dump for DC. White missles.
