nj2va

Named after Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini - literally wrote a textbook on patterns that lead to major east coast storms. They’re The Godfathers of east coast blizzards basically. https://www.amazon.com/Northeast-Snowstorms-1-2-Set/dp/1878220640

I think ‘16 started showing up a week or so out and aside from a random waiver or two, it was locked in the whole time. I can remember even 5 days out, the ensembles had closed 500 lows taking perfect tracks for us on the mean which was pretty astounding and put as high confidence as you can into a big storm here.

Someone smarter than me could comment but looking at 500 and MSLP, I don’t see a HUGE signal that supports the op but the upper air pattern is supportive of winter weather in the east. Fun tracking ahead.

Drooling…fun to look at for 2 more hours

Reminder of Ji’s last prediction a week before he had two measurable events. Keep in mind when Ji declares January is a disaster and we can’t even get a fantasy storm in a good pattern.

21 here.

Got down to 3 at Deep Creek, by far coldest of the season there.

Can we either move Sunday into the discobs thread or create a separate one? It’ll get cluttered in here talking MR/LR with it.

I live like 1.5 miles from DCA as the birds fly and got down to 19 Tuesday morning after the storm. But it’s residential and lots of mature trees so maybe that helped (and not on the water). But even places in Old Town were 20-21. I totally get the UHI issues downtown/etc in dc but DCA is just terrible at obs.

Great photo!

Give me something to track in the Day 4 and shorter timeframe, too. The longer track events are annoying AF due to the meltdowns and freakouts over every. single. fluctuation. -- "OMG, THE 162 HOUR SNOWFALL MAP WENT FROM 16" TO 10" HERE COMES THE NORTH TREND IT WAS FUN WHILE IT LASTED".

Midnight high ruining the sub 32 day here officially but good to finally have a day below freezing.

Sunday could be dicey for N&W with some freezing rain. 3k NAM would be a model I'd keep an eye on as we get closer.

Looks like my 2.6" is spot on to nearby reports in Alexandria. Whew, I can measure!

Got some flurries right now. Deep winter day.

1/3 - 10” 1/7 - 2.6” Total - 12.6”

When it differed so much from every other 00z mesoscale guidance last night, I put extremely little confidence in what it showing for close in metro areas (it did seem to do well out west near Winchester advertising the 6”+ totals though). But in addition to the HRRR over reliance (which can swing from hour to hour to your point), there’s also the ‘panics’ that spread over radar hallucinations or whatever. Last night’s “snow hole” had been modeled all week (even by the GFS), yet the “lack of snow” by 10p was already causing people to poo poo and down play the event with things like…this feels like a grass topper but nothing more….because the radar and heavy banding to the NW. It’s nothing new and happens in every event, but you’d think we’d learn by now.

The radar loop looked impressive with that band….wish I could have stayed up for it.

Yes! The CAPE snowy cabin pic is back

So I take the hallucinations last night about the “snow hole” (which was modeled all week btw) were the wrong take? Looks like I missed some fun in the overnight….measured 2.6” of pure Colorado fluff. What a week of winter here! Over a foot of snow.

Yeah it overestimated the dry air I think. It kept pushing back start time in DC until 2-3a which was off. It’s correcting now probably.

The heavier returns quickly got me down to 32. Best snow growth yet.

Just enjoy what’s falling and don’t worry what you may not get.

Good burst going on right now. SN / 33. Cartopper. And beginning to stick to concrete in places.

Light snow. Temp down to 34. Breezy.