nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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You do your username proud!
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Also, the other thing that models wouldn’t pick up on now (much more useful within 24-36H on the mesos) is the orographic enhancement in the mountains for precip.
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That Euro run was perfect for us. 500/850/SLP all staying east helped and Euro is basically a Miller A vs GFS which looked more Miller B with a secondary LP in the OH valley which causes us to mix for a period of time before the transfer. These finer details will be worked out over the next few days but I’m rooting for that Euro 12z, personally.
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I’d say too early for me to wager amounts but an inland track like the models are showing would hit Deep Creek pretty good with frozen. Depending on the track of the 500 and 850 lows, it could get us in the warm sector where we sleet but again, those details need to be worked out. The upslope with this strong of a system would also hit us good as the LP heads N or NE from our latitude. It looks to be a high impact event out there as of now.
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500 track is just SE of DC (a line from RIC to PHL) which helps too.
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I should go back to learning how to spell weather.
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Sorry if this was already posted but 00z EPS shifted west pretty significantly compared to 18z, unsurprisingly. Lots of tracks that go over the Bay/Eastern Shore now. vs 18z
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Yeah, I remember that a while back but it seems lately (at least when I’m paying attention), that’s not how it works now. But we’ll see!
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UKMET is a pretty classic Miller A track. Savannah to Myrtle Beach to (north of) Wilmington to Norfolk to just east of Atlantic City.
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Definitely seems to have moved away from the suppressed/OTS solutions. Clearly see that in the images above that jaydreb posted.
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I can barely spell weather so I’m hardly the expert - but the NAO is an east-based -NAO so kind of bootleg block. I think that may be a factor plus the strength of the vort.
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Upslope cranks for the mountains as the low pulls N/NE of the region. Good for the ski places.
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I do not understand the “omg, the thread killed the storm” vibe here.
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Nope, still a terrible model regardless of the epic snowstorm it just spit out. I trust the NAM more than the ICON.
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982 up the Bay lol
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Recon sampling the sw over the Pacific
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At least we’re only an hour away from extrapolating the 84 hour NAM…
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Yeah, 12z EPS was better vs 18z. I think its more likely this is suppressed or too far East/OTS than an I-81 runner. Clearly everything is on the table 5 days out.
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Trough on 18z EPS is a bit broader so the MSLP is a bit east at 18z compared to 12z.
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Getting held in place by the ‘ocean bomb cyclone storm of the century hide your kids hide your wife’ storm
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Hi, welcome to the Mid-Atlantic forum where the tides turn on a dime. Are you new here?
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Not that the ICON is ever worth analyzing but to my weenie eyes, it looks like a portion of the s/w phased in with the closed low in the southwest so it was a much weaker vort than 12z. Just one of many solutions on the table - but ICON is a shit model so there's that.
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Coming out of the hot mess that was December, its pretty remarkable we're tracking a potential 3rd event in the last two weeks - with a pattern that screams winter weather the rest of the month.
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Let me know - happy to meet up for a beer.
