nj2va

6z Euro (runs to 90) appears slightly faster than 00z and also I’d say it (probably) stopped a further westward shift from 00z as it looks a touch S/E of 00z. A wall of snow incoming with CHO getting SN++.

Good discussion by LWX: .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A very potent low pressure system will be pushing across the southeastern U.S. on Sunday morning, with wintry weather ongoing to our southwest. The surface low will track north and east from there across our region through Sunday night and into the northeastern U.S. by Monday morning/afternoon. Confidence has increased in the path of this system at this point, with the expectation that the low pretty much bisects the region tracking west of the I-95 corridor. Virtually all guidance has come to this solution, with still varying tracks by a little here and there. The key is, there is a consensus starting to take shape. This ultimately translates to a very messy forecast, particularly along the I-95 corridor. With a strong surface high to the north, don`t see any way we don`t at least see some front end snowfall as the system approaches from the southwest. However, thinking we see a fairly quick transition to wintry mix then rain along/east of I-95 especially. For areas west of the I-95 corridor, well it is going to depend on how far west you are. Sill thinking areas east of the Blue Ridge will changeover to a wintry mix and even to all rain at some point. But think we could see more in the way of snowfall as the cold air holds on longer just along/east of the Blue Ridge. For areas west of the Blue Ridge out to the Alleghenies...this is where we will likely see the big winners in terms of snowfall with this event. Cold air is expected to remain locked in place as the low tracks east of these areas. All this being said, have come down a touch for the I-95 corridor in our winter threat matrix, as consensus builds on a less impactful event there. For areas west, especially west of the Blue Ridge, prepare for a significant winter storm Sunday night into Monday. We aren`t quite into the range for any snowfall amount forecasts just yet, so still a good bit of time for things to shift one way or the other. In fact, the 12z suite of guidance this morning will be the first that has a real sample of the upper-level features at play, as they just moved on land overnight. So, it is important to keep checking back in on our forecast as we fine tune it in the days to come. The ceiling for this event is high for the entire area if this system were to shift east, so keep that in mind for your planning purposes. For our latest forecasts, check weather.gov/lwx/winter. By Monday morning, the aforementioned low will be departing to the northeast. This will leave mostly dry and windy conditions across the region. Expect some lingering light upslope snow showers along the Allegheny Front, but should taper off by the afternoon or early evening.

Latest WPC:

All three Globals (ETA: the ones I care more about…GFS, Euro, CMC) with similar tracks at 00z. I wonder if the westward bumps are finished. I’m starting to sweat for the mountains, lol.

Ah, that’s right. Thanks for clarifying/the reminder. Kind of fascinating the OP went west while the GEFS went east (with more suppressed solutions).

It’d be nice to see the panel between 96 and 120 on the meteocentre site but UKMET takes the SLP from Savannah at 96 to Central/Western Mass at 120. Seems like it’d be east of GFS/CMC at our latitude based on that.

Didn’t high risk post earlier this week that the GFS OP and ensembles are basically run off two different parameters? GFS OP was upgraded but GEFS wasn’t?

He should start our next thread.

The way this is looking now, I’d say yes for I-95/close in burbs. But further N&W towards I-81 and west, the chance at staying all frozen is much higher. Of course, by Friday, GFS could be cutting this west of Pittsburgh, ha.

Hard to read the B&W maps but it looks like the CMC tracks the SLP similar(ish) to GFS.

For the snow map weenies

The CCB is pretty insane on the ICON.

Heights over NE at 90 are lower too.

Don’t want to clog up the thread more so we’ll just agree to disagree - I was looking at the location of where the 500 low closes off (regardless of the model time). time to move on from the 84H NAM

No.

Not sure its worth analyzing the NAM at 500 at the end of the run but it closed off 500 east of Euro and GFS.

Similar to 18z Euro’s temps at that time, which also had mid teens across the area.

Which is slower to roll in? NAM or CMC. It’s close

Recon is sampling the sw again

I’m sorry you can’t see this post then.

Check out these temps as the 18z Euro ends (12z Sunday)

Upslope signal on that GFS run is legit for the mountains.

I think 90 pages of that is snowchaser posting his forecast from the Weather Channel.

500 track shifted east which is a good thing. Took it over OH at 12z. Now its over western VA/WV.

Updated LWX discussion: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Confidence increasing for a high impact winter storm Sunday into Monday... Saturday will be the "calm before the storm" as an anomalous region of high pressure (1040+ mb)resides over the northeast. This will prime the local region with abundant cold air with many locations struggling to get above freezing Saturday afternoon. For the Sunday into Monday system, confidence is continuing to increase in an impactful storm over at least parts of the region. It is too early to speculate snow, ice, or rainfall amounts over the local region as we are still 4-5 days from the event and there are a lot of moving parts in the atmosphere that will be refined over the coming days. Saturday evening, there will be an ULL near the southeast US while an area of surface low pressure moves north in the parent trough through the southeast US. Behind this system is another ULL advecting out of Canada into the great lakes Sunday into Monday morning. This is resulting in the increasing confidence for a high impact winter storm. The eventual track, magnitude of WAA at the surface and aloft, along with other dynamical aspects will determine where the cold air remains and where the heaviest QPF falls. All precip types are expected across the region with this storm. The further west you go in the CWA, the greater the chance for all frozen precip. Ensemble guidance, deterministic guidance, and the overall synoptic pattern a plowable snowfall for many at this juncture. Continue to monitor weather.gov/lwx/winter for the latest forecast. It should be noted that depending on the ultimate track of the storm there could be a dry slot moving somewhere over the region, creating locally lower QPF amounts. A lot will change with this system over the next 4-5 days. Aside from the potential hazardous travel conditions due to wintry precipitation, strong winds may also impact the mountains and metros. Coastal flooding may also become an issue depending on the ultimate track of the low pressure system. A period of upslope mountain snow showers is also likely Monday into Tuesday as the low moves northeast.